Desire is too strong, emotions are too many. With a little more bad luck, once you make a mistake, you will lose everything.
Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. Continuing from last time, after a strong rise in Bitcoin, there was no pullback or adjustment, but it slowly tested the 108000 level. After a drop of ten thousand dollars, it took 3 days to recover amid doubts. Aside from the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, the old Powell's statements on Capitol Hill regarding interest rate cuts have softened significantly. CME expects the probability of a rate cut in September to reach 87%. The easing interest rates for Q3-Q4 and next year are very favorable for the crypto space. Overall long-term expectations are still optimistic, but there will definitely be some minor episodes in the short term, as the situation in the Middle East is only temporarily eased and not completely resolved. Trump indicated that these two could restart hostilities at any time, so short-term risk management cannot be overlooked.
Back to the point, let's talk about the technical aspects. Although Bitcoin has been rising continuously on the daily chart, the key resistance above cannot be ignored. I believe that before setting a new high, a pullback and adjustment is a healthy trend. Otherwise, if there is a continued surge, it would mean a complete liquidation of shorts, and a violent pullback after a new high would be even bloodier. Personally, I still lean towards a pullback, as this will help sustain the subsequent rise better. So near the resistance area, don't chase the rise too aggressively; be careful not to get carried away. As I often say, risks come first, profits come later.
After a large upward movement on the 4H level, there was no pullback, with fragmented upward movements instead. Although such candlestick patterns have a high probability of leading to a big upward surge later, the current candlestick closing pattern is also very important. If the current state is maintained or closes with a bearish candlestick, it indicates weakened bullish momentum, and the probability of adjustment increases. Additionally, the indicators are entering overbought territory. Bitcoin's rise has not driven Auntie's performance; the aforementioned short-term 2480 short still yields good results, and their movements have become quite familiar. Auntie's daily level has not broken through the EMA200 and the middle track, temporarily just standing above the MA60 and MA7, so the short-term focus should be on its support situation. Once it breaks, it will likely test the lower track again. The 4H level may form a rounded top, so pay attention to this candlestick pattern, continuing to reference the resistance mentioned above.
Short-term Bitcoin: short at 108000-109000, long at 103500-102800, looking at a $2000 range.
Short-term Auntie: short at 2460-2480, long at 2300-2270, looking at a $100-120 range.
The advice is for reference only. Please manage your risks when entering the market and grasp your profit and stop-loss spaces yourself. Specific strategies can be consulted in real-time.
Alright, friends, we will say goodbye until next time. I wish everyone to do better and better, and may your journey in the crypto world be smooth and promising! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here.
Text by: I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.
