Below is an analysis of the bullish arrangement and potential of BTC (Bitcoin):
Current status of bullish arrangement
- Short-term outlook: The market on June 17 showed that Bitcoin bulls once broke through to rise to $108,700, but from an hourly chart perspective, while the candlestick is in a unilateral arrangement, the Bollinger Bands are diverging, lacking parallel and sustained volume signals, making the upward foundation unstable. Morning trading requires high vigilance regarding the risk of price pullback.
- Mid-term outlook: Some analysts believe that Bitcoin has initiated a main upward wave similar to gold's trajectory, with various analysis frameworks pointing to above $120,000, and there will be significant investment opportunities in 2026, although there will be pullbacks in between.
Highly anticipated factors
- Technical analysis perspective: When the price of Bitcoin continues to stabilize above $103,820, technical indicators across various cycles show a bullish arrangement. The market will maintain a strong upward momentum. Currently, the bullish arrangement of the market remains good, with prices operating above various moving averages, indicating that the upward momentum is still relatively robust.
- Market sentiment and capital flow perspective: Despite Bitcoin ETF seeing a single-day outflow of $96 million and signs of profit-taking from major funds, the fear and greed index remains at 70, indicating a level of 'greed'. The risk of short-term pullbacks has intensified, but there are also views that the accumulation of Bitcoin by whales in the last few days of May may have a positive impact.
- Market trend perspective: From a macro perspective, Bitcoin is in a trend of oscillating upward. Pullbacks above the channel line are primarily bullish, while secondary pullbacks that do not break the previous high are considered bearish.
Risk factors
- Technical indicator risk: Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around $100,000. On a daily level, the bullish trend remains unchanged, but momentum is waning, with the RSI indicator retreating from the overbought zone, and the MACD histogram height narrowing significantly.
- Market sentiment risk: The number of short positions exceeds that of long positions, and short-term market sentiment is cautious, with bearish forces relatively dominant. However, neither side has shown an absolutely overwhelming advantage, making the short-term trend uncertain. It may first dip to test the $102,500 to $100,800 range, triggering market reactions before rebounding.
- News risk: The market lacks substantial news to support a price breakout above $110,000. Early investors may sell near the $110,000 price range, creating selling pressure.