Let's interpret Old Bao's speech today. In one sentence: If it weren't for Old Deng's tariffs, the Federal Reserve would have lowered rates long ago. The reason they are not lowering rates now is because of too much uncertainty. Cautious in July, open in September. In plain terms, I want to lower rates, but someone has to take the blame.

And what about the market? Everyone is playing dead. The situation with gold is even more absurd; gas canisters are flying up, yet prices aren't rising. 3500 directly acts as a ceiling, indicating that funds don't believe this wave of risk at all. They are afraid no one will take the bait because the money has already run to the stock market and crypto circle.

Back to the market, the price trend could have shown a decrease in current price premium, and I thought there could be a decent correction. Instead, it directly ground up to the middle track, and just as the shorts were about to act, the market slipped away.

Currently, it's the futures market pushing prices up, not the spot market selling off. The divergence in futures is not a peak but a trap set by the market makers. How many times have you seen false breakouts and real liquidations in the past two months? This is targeting the short liquidity at 108k and 110k.

If the price touches the middle track and doesn’t break, the next probable stop is 108k for liquidation, followed by a fake correction to attract new shorts before pushing up to clear the 110 shorts. The only purpose of this play is to wipe out the shorts, after which real fluctuations and downtrends may occur.

You can take a look at the liquidation map; the shorts below 108k are already piled up, yet the bears are still fantasizing about holding. Making an entry into the liquidation zone this morning without explosion is the bears trying to save themselves, but how many times can they save themselves?

To conclude, the summary thought process is simple: do not short, cautiously go long or think about shorting, but wait for the price to drop to the middle track and break 105k before taking action, otherwise, it's just throwing fuel.

Right now, the market is in a rhythm of breaking and flying up. If you touch the top on the left side, you are just providing fuel for others. Do you remember how the bulls died last week? Buying at 103k all the way to liquidation, and just as they finished losing, the price rebounded.

Resistance reference levels:

Second resistance level: 107500

First resistance level: 106800

Support reference levels:

Second support level: 105900

First support level: 105400