A large bullish candle broke through $106,000, with $490 million in liquidated orders scattered along the path. The clarion call of Bitcoin and the deep trenches of bears formed a silent standoff in the $105,000 battle zone.
News of a ceasefire in the Middle East acted like a shot of adrenaline, instantly pulling Bitcoin from near $98,000 to a peak of $106,000. Within 24 hours, 130,000 investors faced liquidations totaling $490 million, with bears losing as much as $358 million.
The smoke of battle has not yet cleared, and prices have stabilized above $105,000. Analysts are closely watching the nearly reachable yet distant $110,000 level.
1. Market status: Geopolitical risks retreat, technical indicators shine
The dramatic easing of the situation in the Middle East has become the biggest variable in this week's market. On June 24, the United States announced a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and Bitcoin surged from $99,000 to $106,000, achieving an astonishing daily gain.
The calming of this geopolitical storm has cleared the greatest short-term uncertainty, and market risk appetite has quickly rebounded. As of June 25, Bitcoin stabilized above $105,000, with trading volume surging by 23% compared to the previous period, forming a bullish pattern of rising volume and price.
The technical side sends multiple positive signals: The MACD histogram continues to expand, the KDJ shows no death cross, and a key gap appears, indicating strong buying pressure entering the market.
Bitcoin has currently broken through the key resistance level of $105,371. If it can stabilize at this position, it will open up space towards $106,507.
2. Interwoven long and short signals: The technical side hides the attack and defense code
The bullish camp is raising the banner of attack. When Bitcoin's price stabilizes above the 'golden line' of $103,000, the bull market trend will continue. Some analysts boldly predict that the target of $117,500 is getting closer.
Bullish patterns are emerging: The current trend is identified by some experts as the tail end of the Wyckoff accumulation pattern, highly similar to the pre-breakout accumulation pattern in early 2025. The weekly upward trend remains intact, and the pullback is limited, laying the groundwork for a new high.
3. Bears have not given up resistance. Warning signals also exist in the market:
- The lower band of the Bollinger Bands has broken below $98,500, and the candlestick has temporarily left the channel
- The Bitcoin fear and greed index is in the 'fear' zone, reflecting investors' cautious short-term mentality
- A defensive shift has occurred in the derivatives market, with put option premiums exceeding call option premiums by 5 volatility points
Key positions have become battlegrounds for bulls and bears: $106,507 is gathering $920 million in short stop-loss orders, which may trigger violent fluctuations. The range of $99,200-$92,800 forms an important support zone. If it drops below $81,340, it may signal the end of the bull market.
4. Long and short layout strategies: Key positions and attack-defense tactics
Bullish attack roadmap
- Ideal entry position: Effective support area below $98,700-$100,000
- Defensive bastion: The intersection area of 98,000-97,600 Fibonacci retracement and EMA120
- Breakthrough chasing point: After stabilizing above $106,507, there is a high probability of targeting $110,000-$113,000
- Stop-loss discipline: Strictly set the defense line at $97,000-$98,388
Bearish counterattack tactics set
High-level ambush area: Short positions in the range of $108,000-$110,000
Target harvesting zone: First look at $105,500, then at $104,500-$103,500
Stop-loss barrier: Conservative investors may choose to set stop-losses when breaking new highs
Warning: Position allocation must be done well. Enter the market with light positions within the entry range. Even if a reversal occurs, as long as there is no absolute positive news, there is still a chance to remedy. If a single position is too heavy, there will be no chance to add to the position, or the risk after adding will be too high, leading to a wait-and-see situation.
Cross-market arbitrage opportunities appear: Bitcoin priced in RMB has a 2.7% premium, with Huobi BTC/CNY quoted at 770,423 yuan and Binance BTC/USDT at $106,228. Cross-border capital can use platforms like XBIT for automated arbitrage.
5. Institutional trends: Capital games under the market's undercurrents
Institutional forces are becoming a stabilizer in the Bitcoin market. Despite geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin ETFs still saw an inflow of $1.3 billion last week, marking one of the strongest inflow periods since launch.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor's holdings are nearing the symbolic threshold of 600,000 BTC, and his systematic buying strategy has become an important support for the market. Brazilian fintech company Méliuz has also raised $32 million through a stock issuance specifically to expand its Bitcoin holdings.
6. The derivatives market releases frenzied signals:
- The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts has surged to 0.098%, a peak for the year
- CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surpassed $12.2 billion
- The hedge fund long-short ratio has risen to a clear bullish pattern of 4.7:1
The trend of Bitcoin allocation in corporate financial management is accelerating, with the total amount of BTC held by publicly listed companies surpassing 300,000. The Texas Blockchain Council has announced that state pension funds are allowed to allocate 5% to cryptocurrencies, expected to bring in an additional $3.8 billion annually.
7. Risk warning: Potential traps on the road to charging forward
The altcoin market is bleeding, casting a shadow over Bitcoin's trend. Recently, several altcoins have experienced significant declines, such as ZKJ and KOGE, which crashed due to liquidity traps.
Unlocking waves create short-term selling pressure: Projects like ZK and LISTA are about to face large-scale token unlocks, with ZK accounting for 21% of the unlock, amounting to over $30 million, potentially impacting the market.
The technical side hides divergence risks:
- Daily MACD fast and slow lines are not yet converged, with the possibility of another divergence
- On the 4-hour chart, the KDJ in the overbought zone is strongly turning downward, accumulating pullback risks
- The middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $103,000 forms strong resistance
Historical lessons are worth noting: In April 2025, when the price reached around $106,507, it triggered a 17% flash crash in a single day. Currently, this position is once again gathering a large number of stop-loss orders, increasing volatility risks.
This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Market volatility is high, and risks are correspondingly greater. Be cautious and do not become a lamb to be slaughtered!
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