Current price: $0.318 (24-hour drop of 1.15%, 30-day drop of 51.94%)
Historical fluctuations: Highest $1.40 (down 77% from the peak), Lowest $0.276
Liquidity characteristics: 24-hour trading volume is only $0.53M, thin liquidity exacerbates volatility risk
Technical core signals:
1. Trend structure and key positions
Moving average system: 50-day SMA ($0.33) crosses below 200-day SMA ($0.38) to form a death cross, short-term bearish trend dominates
Long and short boundaries:
Resistance Zone: $0.35 (previous high in June), $0.56 (high in April)
Support Zone: $0.30 (psychological level), $0.276 (historical strong support)
2. On-chain data warning
Market capitalization/FDV ratio: 18.62% (total supply 1 billion, 186 million in circulation), with significant selling pressure for future unlocking;
Holdings distribution: The top 10 addresses account for less than 15% of the total, and retail investors dominate, which may easily lead to stampedes;
Fundamentals and market sentiment game
1. Ecological advantages
User scale: 45 million active wallets, 292 million connections in total (No. 1 in Web3 connection protocol)
Adoption rate: Integrate more than 600 wallets + 40,000 DApps, covering all scenarios of DeFi/NFT/chain games
2. Divergence in institutional forecasts
Optimistic target (CoinCodex): $1.25 (depends on the number of users exceeding 60 million)
Cautious expectations (Mudrex): $0.65–0.90 (TVL needs to increase by 50%)
Multi-period trend deduction
Short term (1-3 months): shock bottoming out
Bullish scenario:
If the volume breaks through $0.35, the target is $0.42 (+32%). Trigger conditions:
✅ Head CEX (such as Coinbase) launched WCT;
✅ Monthly active users exceeded 50 million.
Bearish risk:
Losing $0.276 will open a downward channel with a target of $0.20 (-37%). Trigger conditions:
❌ Q3 token unlocking selling pressure (accounting for 8.3% of the circulation);
❌ BTC drops below $60k dragged down.
Mid-term (end of 2025): Ecological verification period
Base target: $0.65 (+104% of current price), which requires:
✅ Node staking rate > 25%
✅ Protocol income conversion token destruction
Breakthrough path: If TVL increases by 80% year-on-year and compliance cooperation is implemented, it will reach $1.10
Practical Trading Strategies
1. Position management
Current price holders: Hold above $0.30, stop loss if it breaks;
Reduce position by 50% when it rebounds to $0.35 (technical resistance area);
2. Position building path
Aggressive Strategy:
Build positions in batches in the $0.28-0.30 range (accounting for 40% of the total position);
If it breaks through $0.35, it will rise by 30% and the target is $0.42.
Conservative strategy:
Wait for the daily RSI to be less than 30 or the weekly line to close at $0.35 before intervening;
Three core risk monitoring
Unlock selling pressure: 12 million tokens (6.5% of the circulation) will be unlocked in August 2025, and large transfers on the chain will be monitored;
Ecological progress: Key tracking:
Institutional staking participation, mainstream DApp fee switch activated.
Conclusion: WCT is at the bottom of valuation but the momentum is weak. It is advisable to operate with a light position in the short term. Breaking through $0.35 will start technical repair, and the medium-term space depends on the ability to capture ecological value. Strictly abide by the $0.276 stop loss discipline, and focus on the Q3 unlock window and user growth data.
$WCT #WalletConnect #TheConnectiveLayer