In the past three days, the cryptocurrency market has been like a roller coaster, experiencing violent fluctuations amidst geopolitical turmoil and sudden news. Bitcoin ($BTC) had previously fallen below the psychological threshold of $100,000 due to the escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, reaching a low of $98,500, marking the first low in 45 days.
However, this morning a piece of news instantly reversed the market. US President Trump announced on Truth Social that 'Iran and Israel have reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement.'
"Congratulations everyone! Israel and Iran have fully agreed to implement a complete and comprehensive ceasefire (approximately 6 hours from now, at which point Israel and Iran will conclude their ongoing final tasks!), lasting for 12 hours, at which point this war will be considered over! Officially, Iran will start the ceasefire, and in the 12th hour, Israel will begin the ceasefire, and in 24 hours, the world will salute the formal end of the 12-day war. During each ceasefire, both parties will maintain peace and respect."
Once the news broke, crude oil futures, which had previously plummeted due to war panic, instantly erased the risk premium.
Bitcoin, as a representative of risk assets, also staged a thrilling V-shaped rebound, leaping up from the abyss of panic selling, strongly breaking through the $106,000 mark, with an intraday increase of 4.25%. Mainstream cryptocurrencies also rose broadly, showcasing a 'short squeeze' market.
I am optimistic about the subsequent trend of Bitcoin. On one hand, even during the most tense periods of the Israel-Iran conflict, Bitcoin only briefly fell before quickly rebounding, demonstrating 'resilience' to geopolitical risks; on the other hand, the macroeconomic expectations in the US present another favorable factor—on June 23, oil prices plummeted, and the S&P 500 index rose by 1%, combined with the market's warming expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, providing liquidity support for cryptocurrencies.
Data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until November has dropped from 17.1% a week ago to 8.4%, while the probability of a rate cut to below 3.75% before November has risen from 38% to 53%.
The alleviation of geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy form a 'double positive.'
However, the market still needs to be vigilant against uncertainty: on June 26, the US will announce real GDP and the PCE price index, and the evolving situation among the US, Israel, and Iran may again disturb the market. We still need to closely monitor geopolitical dynamics, while managing risks, as the violent fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are never far away.
Three scenarios that the US, Israel, and Iran need to be vigilant about
Scenario One: A 'W' shaped pattern with a second bottom. This is the most pessimistic possibility. If the explosion in Tehran triggers substantial retaliation from Iran, leading to a spiral escalation of the conflict, then the optimistic narrative of the market will completely collapse. Oil prices will soar again, inflation fears will reignite, and hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut will vanish. In this case, the price of Bitcoin will inevitably begin a second round of decline, testing the key support levels of $92,000 and even $81,000.
Scenario Two: A 'Fragile Balance' in High-Level Consolidation. This is the scenario currently unfolding. The market acknowledges the fragility of the ceasefire agreement but simultaneously chooses to believe that the intensity of the conflict will remain within a 'controllable' range and will not escalate into a full-scale war requiring large-scale US intervention. Under the expectation of 'no catastrophic war,' the price of Bitcoin may maintain high-level fluctuations above $100,000. The market will enter a 'listening to the wind' mode, being highly sensitive to any developments from the Middle East, with prices oscillating between hope and fear.
Scenario Three: A slowly rising 'new normal.' This is the most optimistic possibility, but also the least likely. If Israel's strike is indeed the 'final blow' and Iran chooses to endure or only respond symbolically, the regional situation will enter a relatively calm period. This will reaffirm the market's expectations for a 'Federal Reserve rate cut.' In this case, Bitcoin may escape the direct impact of geopolitical factors and return to a slow bull track dominated by macro liquidity and internal supply and demand (such as ETF fund flows), gradually climbing upwards.
To determine where the market is heading, investors need to closely monitor the following key indicators:
The direction of oil prices (WTI): This is the most direct thermometer for measuring geopolitical risks.
US Dollar Index (DXY): Reflects changes in market expectations of Federal Reserve policy.
Official statements: Any formal statements from the White House, Pentagon, and Israeli Prime Minister's office.
Military dynamics: Any new military mobilizations or signs of conflict in the Middle East.
Conclusion
From $98,500 to $106,000, Bitcoin confirmed the characteristics of a 'news-driven market' with a rapid rebound, while the geopolitical game behind the ceasefire and macroeconomic interweaving may have just opened a new chapter in market narrative.
The financial storm has not passed; Bitcoin's next step will be shaped by the dissipating smoke over Tehran and the decisions made in the Washington policy meeting room.
