The Surge of Ethereum in the Early Morning is the Result of Multiple Macroeconomic and Market Factors Resonating, with Core Drivers as Follows:

1. Easing Geopolitical Risks Trigger Market Sentiment Reversal

Trump Announces Israel-Iran Ceasefire Agreement: Early on June 24, Beijing Time, Trump Announced on Social Media that Israel and Iran Reached a 'Comprehensive Ceasefire', Ending 12 Days of Military Conflict. Although Iran Later Denied the Details of the Agreement, the Market Still Interpreted it as a Signal of De-escalation, Leading to a Collective Rebound of Risk Assets.

Iran's 'Symbolic Retaliation' Against U.S. Military Bases: Previously, Iran Launched Missiles at a U.S. Military Base in Qatar, but No Casualties Occurred. Trump Called It 'Weak' and Thanked Iran for the 'Advance Notice', Further Alleviating Market Panic.

Impact Transmission: ETH, as a high-beta asset, surged from a low of $2111 to $2440 within 24 hours, an increase of over 15.5%.

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2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up, Providing Liquidity Support

Federal Reserve Officials Release Dovish Signals: Fed Governor Bowman Supports 'Rate Cut as Early as July', Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Also Hints Tariffs Have Not Caused Inflationary Pressures, Opening Up Space for Rate Cuts. Expectations for Lower Rates Drive Capital Flow into Risk Assets like Cryptocurrencies.

Market Reaction: U.S. Stock Index Futures and Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Rise in Sync, the Crypto Market's Correlation with Traditional Risk Assets Increases, and ETH Benefits from Expectations of Macroeconomic Liquidity Easing.

3. Technical Rebound and Derivatives Market Squeeze Short Positions

Demand for Rebound After Overselling: Affected by the Middle East conflict, ETH fell from $2500 to $2111 within a week, with technical indicators showing serious overselling. Ceasefire news triggered a bullish counterattack, forming a V-shaped reversal.

Massive Short Liquidation: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation in the crypto market reached $495 million, with shorts accounting for 77%. The largest single liquidation of ETH reached $12.14 million, with short covering accelerating price increases.

4. Sector Fund Rotation and Ecological Benefits Catalyze

AI and RWA Sectors Lead Gains: The AI Sector Rose by 13.44% in 24 Hours, while the RWA Sector Rose by 12.33%. As the Leader in Smart Contract Platforms, ETH Benefits from Funding Inflows into Ecological Projects.

Staking Rewards and ETF Expectations: Although today's data was not directly mentioned, ETH staking rewards and staking ETFs driven by institutions like BlackRock are long-term favorable, attracting funds to accumulate at lower prices.

5. Follow-up Risk Warning

Ceasefire Agreement in Doubt: Iranian Foreign Minister Claims 'No Formal Agreement Reached', Israeli Military Hints Possible Continued Attacks, Geopolitical Uncertainty Persists.

Technical Overbought: ETH's short-term increase has been too rapid, with RSI Approaching Overbought Levels; If the situation changes again, it may face retracement pressure.

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Xiao Chen's Personal Opinion:

ETH's Surge is the Result of the Combined Forces of Diminishing Geopolitical Risks + Macroeconomic Policy Shifts + Technical Corrections + Derivatives Liquidation. Short-term Volatility is Still Dominated by News, Investors Need to Closely Monitor Official Movements from Israel and Iran as well as Federal Reserve Policy Signals. If the ceasefire is confirmed and rate cuts materialize, ETH is Expected to Challenge the Key Resistance at $2500.



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