From falling below $98,500 to spiking to $106,000, Bitcoin completed a thrilling 'high-wire act' within 24 hours, with the outcome of this bull-bear showdown hidden in the subtle changes of on-chain data and geopolitical factors.
When Asian traders woke up on June 24, the crypto market had staged a stunning reversal — Bitcoin violently surged from the previous day's low of $98,500 caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict, breaking through the $105,000 mark with a gain of 3.6%; Ethereum also rose above $2,400, with a daily increase of over 6%.
Behind this reversal is a tug-of-war between long-term holders taking profits and the continuous influx of institutional ETF funds, while Trump's sudden announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East became the final spark igniting the bullish counterattack.
Due to geopolitical risks, we established a Bitcoin short position on the 16th, directly netting a profit of 10,000 points, which was described in detail in yesterday's article. Meanwhile, after closing the short position, we casually bought at around $98,000, and upon waking up again due to geopolitical factors, we gained another 7,000 points, with ETH netting 300 points, successfully grasping the trend.
01 Geopolitical Black Swan and Policy Shift: The Dual Drivers of Price Volatility
The recent market turmoil began with a geopolitical incident on June 23: the U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered a panic sell-off of global risk assets, causing Bitcoin to fall below $99,000, hitting a six-week low.
But a dramatic turnaround occurred within 24 hours — Trump announced a two-phase ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, instantly reversing market sentiment. Crude oil prices expanded their intraday drop to 4% (West Texas Intermediate at $70.64/barrel), and funds quickly flowed back into the crypto market.
Policy levels are also releasing warmth. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman unexpectedly stated: 'If inflation is controlled, I will support a July rate cut,' which significantly alleviated liquidity anxiety caused by the Fed's 'delayed rate cut' statement in May.
More critically, the Federal Reserve announced the removal of the 'reputational risk' metric in bank reviews, clearing obstacles for traditional banks serving crypto businesses, which Wyoming Senator Lummis called a 'milestone victory.'
02 On-Chain Battle: Why $98,000 is the Lifeline for Bulls and Bears
Glassnode's on-chain data reveals the deeper logic of the $98,000 support level: this position forms a dual-layer defense network consisting of the cost basis for short-term holders ($97,100) and the SSD 0.85 percentile ($95,600).
When prices fell below $100,000, the historical accumulation ranges of $81,000-$85,000 and $93,000-$96,000 became potential support zones, attracting institutional funds to buy at low levels.
The technicals corroborated this game. Analyst CrypNuevo observed that after Bitcoin faced strong resistance at $106,000, the 150-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the psychological level of $100,000 formed dynamic support.
This deep V reversal during the session confirmed the existence of a massive liquidity pool in the $98,000-$95,600 range; once breached, it could trigger programmatic selling, causing prices to slide towards $90,000.
03 Institutional Undercover Battle: Long-term Holder Selling Pressure vs. Public Companies Snapping Up
Amid market volatility, primary funds show a split trend:
- Long-term Holders (LTH) Begin to Take Profits: Glassnode reports significant token transfers from wallets holding for over a year after prices broke $100,000, with some chips moving into exchanges.
- Public Companies Ignite the 'Bitcoin Treasury' Wave: Brazilian public company Méliuz invested $28.61 million to increase its holdings of 275 BTC at an average price of $103,864; real estate giant Cardone Capital announced the purchase of $100 million worth of BTC, targeting a total holding of 3,000 BTC.
- ETFs Continue to Attract Capital: The cumulative trading volume of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has surpassed the $1 trillion milestone, with BlackRock's IBIT fund dominating the market with a 79% share, maintaining daily trading volumes in the $2.3-4.4 billion range.
This game intensified in the derivatives market: when Bitcoin fell below $100,000, the liquidation amount within 24 hours reached $702 million, but during the rebound, the perpetual contract funding rate quickly turned positive, indicating that leveraged longs were re-entering the market.
04 Altcoin Resonance: The Upgrade Narrative Behind Ethereum's Lead
As Bitcoin stabilized and rebounded, Ethereum showed even greater resilience. Behind its daily increase of over 6% lies the fermentation of expectations for the July Pectra upgrade.
This upgrade will optimize staking efficiency and user experience, attracting continued institutional involvement — on-chain monitoring shows a previously dormant whale address suddenly increased its holdings by 1,700 ETH (approximately $3.1 million).
Technically, Ethereum's weekly 0.236 Fibonacci level ($2,026) has become a key defense line. If it can break through the resistance zone of $2,380-$2,448 (super trend line + bull market support zone), it may open up a new round of upward space.
This synchronous rise with high-performance public chain tokens like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI), which have also risen over 10%, reflects the preference of funds for underlying infrastructure.
05 Upcoming Minefield: July Rate Cut Expectations and Regulatory Variables
Despite short-term sentiment warming, the market still faces triple tests:
- Rate Cut Game: Doubts remain over whether the Fed will cut rates in July, with Powell previously emphasizing that 'more data support is needed'; if inflation rebounds, it may further hurt the market.
- Regulatory Sniper: The U.S. SEC's stance on crypto remains unclear; while Hong Kong accelerates license approvals (having issued 10, with 8 more under review), Texas's new law authorizes the seizure of involved crypto assets, highlighting policy risk.
- Technical Risks: Bitcoin's 4-hour RSI approaches the overbought zone; if it cannot hold above $106,000, it may fall into a range.
What’s more concerning is the impact of concentrated token unlocks. New projects like NEWT have foundations holding tokens that could unlock 20% at TGE; if sold off in concentration, it will exacerbate volatility.
The crypto market demonstrated the strategic significance of the $98,000 support level with a textbook-level deep V reversal. As the Texas government allocated $10 million to establish Bitcoin reserves and Hong Kong laid the regulatory groundwork for stablecoins, the boundaries between the traditional world and crypto ecosystem are rapidly dissolving.
This $100,000 defense battle is not only a technical game but also a vote by global capital for a new form of value storage.
As Bitcoin ETF's daily trading volume surpasses $4.4 billion, institutions are no longer satisfied with marginal probing — BlackRock's IBIT fund, with $70 billion in assets under management, has exceeded the gold holdings of most sovereign wealth funds. As the narrative of 'digital gold' gradually comes to fruition, every dip could lead to a higher jump.
