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1. Market reaction statistics to wars over 85 years

Over the last eight decades, analysts have counted 45 military episodes (excluding World War II).

On average:

➡️ one month after the start of the conflict, the index was approximately 0.7% higher,

➡️ after six months — 4-4.5%,

➡️ after a year — 9%.

It turns out — shocks mostly last weeks; six to twelve months later, the market is already worth more than on the day of the first explosions.

2. Let's take a narrower sample of 'Oil' wars

➡️ Let's take eight episodes where oil was a key factor (Yom Kippur 1973, Persian Gulf 1990, strike on Soleimani 2020, start of Operation 'Iron Swords' 2023, etc.).

➡️ The most painful case — 1973: Yom Kippur War + Arab oil embargo ➡️ S&P 500 fell by about a third over 12 months 😮

➡️ In all other 'oil' conflicts, a year later, the index either returned to zero or was in the plus (in 6 out of 8 cases). The average value without 1973 hovers around +1% per year.

3. Why 1973 ≠ 2024

➡️ Back then, the US was almost entirely dependent on imported oil; today, they both produce and sell.

➡️ In the 70s, OPEC controlled a lion's share of the market, and consumers had virtually no strategic reserves. Now, the OECD keeps a week's to a month's 'buffers' of oil and products.

➡️ The Fed at that time was fighting double-digit inflation and tightening policy simultaneously; now inflation is decreasing, and the Fed has space to support the economy if needed.

4. Current perspective: Iran vs Israel

➡️ The threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz sounds loud (about one-fifth of all global maritime oil passes through the strait), but a market collapse requires a combination of several events: a prolonged blockade, strikes on infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, tough secondary sanctions. The basic forecasts of the largest investment banks consider such a 'cocktail' unlikely.

➡️ Historically, the S&P 500 quickly 'forgets' most wars unless they lead to prolonged energy shocks and recessions.

5. Where's the crypto market (and TON) here

➡️ Bitcoin today sometimes behaves like 'digital gold' (rises on fear), but more often fluctuates along with risk assets, only with a higher amplitude.

➡️ Toncoin is more dependent on its internal drivers: growth of wallets in Telegram, launch of mini-apps, listings. Global conflicts affect it only indirectly — through general risk appetite. Confirmation: in October 2023 (escalation in the Middle East), Toncoin corrected significantly weaker than the average altcoin.

6. Practical conclusions for private investors (DYOR, not a recommendation — logic):

➡️ Need money in 1-3 months? Keep a significant portion in cash or short bonds. Volatility hasn't gone anywhere, and the market may 'spark' more than it can recover by your payment date.

➡️ Long horizon (a year or more)? History shows that in ~70% of cases, the index will be higher than on the day of the first headlines about the war.

➡️ Diversify: a bit of 'defensive' assets (gold, energy ETFs) plus stocks/crypto. Strong downturns in some asset classes are often offset by growth in others.

➡️ Don't confuse news and strategy. Headlines about rockets cause short-term 'candles', but the long-term trend remains a function of corporate profits and central bank policy.

➡️ Crypto portfolio: core (BTC/ETH) + thematic (TON). Remember that for altcoins, a drop of 20-30% within a year is normal, not a catastrophe.

Wars scare instantly, but the S&P 500 historically 'forgets' them after half a year to a year; oil enhances the effect, but repeating 1973 is much harder now. Panic rarely pays off, while calm discipline and diversification work even in times of rocket headlines.

#SP500 #Oil #StockMarket #Analytics