After the U.S. attack, Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% to 30% of all oil traded in the world passes. The barrel rose by 5.7%, but lost steam this morning.

The global economy begins the week under the impact of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday. The bombing raised concerns about international oil prices, which had already seen a significant increase this month, in an international economic scenario that has been fragile since Donald Trump's tariff measures.

Economists consulted by GLOBO assess that the pressure on the commodity will be great, at least in the coming days, but it is difficult to make bets on the magnitude and durability of the increase.

In the short term, central banks that were already starting to consider possible rate cuts down the line — like the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank) and the Brazilian central bank — will likely pause any discussion in this regard until the situation stabilizes and the effects on inflation become clearer.

— At first, any central bank considering cutting interest rates should think twice. In Brazil, it will depend heavily on the exchange rate and the central bank's willingness to intervene. But if there were bets on cuts (in interest rates) at the beginning of next year, that should be less reflected or removed from the pricing of the curve — said former Central Bank International Affairs Director Tony Volpon to GLOBO.

On Sunday, in reaction to the American attack, the Iranian Parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, through which a large part of the world's oil exports pass. In the international market, the price of Brent crude, the most traded, rose by 5.7% at the start of trading to $81.40. But early on this Monday, it had already lost steam. Around 10:30 AM, it was up 0.26% to $77.21. A month ago, the barrel was not at $64.

What Wall Street previously viewed as a low-probability event is now being treated as a risk.

— If oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are affected, we could easily see oil valued at $100 — said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

After the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, JPMorgan analysts predicted that closing the Strait of Hormuz could raise oil prices to $120 or even $130 per barrel.

If crude oil reaches this range, analysts forecast that gasoline and diesel prices could rise by up to $1.25 (about R$ 6.85) per gallon in the United States. One gallon corresponds to 3.78 liters.

— Consumers would be looking at a national average gasoline price of around $4.50 (about R$ 24.50) per gallon — said Lipow.

No crystal ball

The threat from Iran to close the strait is not new. In various other situations of international crisis, the Iranians have put intervention in the maritime passage on the table, which is responsible for the flow of about 20% to 30% of all oil traded globally.

The strait is also crucial for the transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with 20% of global trade, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Although the blockade was approved yesterday by Parliament, it still needs to pass through the Supreme National Security Council and the supreme leader of the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

According to Helder Queiroz from the Energy Economics Group at the Institute of Economics at UFRJ, the extent of the repercussions for the economy will depend on what comes next.

— I don't have a crystal ball, no one does, but an increase this Monday of $5 to $10 or even more (in the price of the barrel) would not be a surprise, considering that oil closed at $77 on Friday, compared to $88 a year ago — he states. — But it is important to remember that in 2022, at the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices exceeded $120, leading to immense global inflation.

Economies survive

David Zilberstajn, former director-general of the National Oil Agency (ANP) and professor at PUC-Rio, recalls that oil has been priced above $100 at various times and 'economies survive' and 'there is no deep disarray.'

— The problem is not the price or the availability of oil in the world, but the geopolitical issue. If Iran does something now, it will provoke a reaction. But who would support Iran? I don't think Russia and China would do that — he questions. — It's a multidimensional issue, with logistical factors, supply reorganization, production chain, and, momentarily, price hikes.

For him, at least in the last 50 years, there is no reliable model that accurately predicts future oil prices, but there are predictable effects:

— There is always a lot of speculation, a lot of guesswork. There are always many people interested in the price of a commodity that impacts the world. Many will make money — he observes. — For Americans, for example, it enables oil projects that were stalled (due to the price drop). There are millions of overlapping interests. Caution is needed. There may be a hiccup at first, which often doesn't last a week.

U.S. appeals to China

Zilberstajn assesses that even China, which today buys most of its oil from Iran, will not be without the commodity, as the trend is for other producers to meet the demand of the Asian country. Yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to pressure Iran not to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Queiroz from UFRJ assesses that Brazil could gain in a scenario of rising prices:

— High prices bring comfort to (Fernando) Haddad's (Minister of Finance) pillow, with higher royalty revenue. It would give a certain relief (to the accounts). It also improves the trade balance — points out Queiroz. — On the other hand, it affects inflation. Petrobras has been cautious in passing on price increases (of fuels), but it will have to raise prices at some point — he said. (With international agencies)