The price of Solana ($SOL ) has entered a critical zone after weeks of continuous selling pressure. From its peak near $188, the token has dropped over 29%, hovering now above a key support level at around $130. As investors watch for the next move, the charts reveal a tight path between a potential short-term recovery or a deeper collapse. With the Relative Strength Index approaching oversold levels and Heikin Ashi candles continuing to print red, it's time to ask - is the price of Solana ready to bounce back, or is a drop below $100 likely?
Solana price prediction: why is the price struggling around $130?
Solana's stock ($SOL ) is currently trading around the $133 level, trying to hold above a critical Fibonacci support area. After recently hitting a peak near $188 in late May, the price has been in a continuous decline. The more telling aspect is the use of Heikin Ashi candles, which reveal a strong and sustained bearish trend - characterized by consecutive red candles without lower wicks. This is a clear sign of downward dominance.
Support has temporarily held around $128-130, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the last major high. If this level is decisively broken, the price of Solana could quickly drop to the next support area at $116 or even $102, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci zone.
What does the Relative Strength Index say about the reversal?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 30.26, touching the oversold boundary. Historically, this is where Solana tends to respond - either temporarily halting its decline or bouncing back for a short-term rise. However, it is important to note that the RSI alone does not confirm a reversal, especially during strong bearish trends.
In early April, a similar level of the Relative Strength Index led to a rebound of approximately +38% over 18 days. If history repeats itself, a potential rebound from $130 could drive the price of Solana to $152-160 in the short term - representing an approximate rise of 20%-25%.
Will Solana drop below $100?
The main concern now is the lack of bullish momentum and trading volume. Heikin Ashi candles continue to close in red with almost no upper wicks, indicating that buying pressure is almost absent. If the $130-128 range collapses, there will be very little structural support until $102, and a rapid drop to $85 is not out of the question - especially if broader market sentiment weakens further.
Let's consider this drop scenario:
From the current price of $133
Drop to $102 = approximately 23% decrease
Drop to $85 = approximately 36% decrease
This type of movement is likely to coincide with full risk-off sentiment in altcoins or broader market panic.
Is there any bullish scenario for the price #SOL in the near term?
Yes - but it's conditional. If the bulls can defend the $130 level and push the price above $138-140, it could lead to a short-term rally. The next direct resistance is around $152, followed by $165. For this to happen, the Relative Strength Index must bounce above 40, and we need green Heikin Ashi candles with upper wicks - a signal that buyers are resisting.
A potential upward move from $133 to $165 could yield nearly +24%, giving swing traders an opportunity - provided a confirmation signal like a bullish engulfing or RSI divergence appears.
Solana price prediction: what's next?
Bearish scenario: breaking below $128 → free fall to $116, then $102
Bullish scenario: Holding $130 and breaking above $140 → bounce to $152 or $165
Neutral outcome: Stabilization between $130 and $140 without significant breakout until July
Considering the current chart structure, the bias remains bearish until the price of Solana strongly breaks the resistance area of $140 and $142. Selling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the oversold range is worth monitoring, but in the absence of price confirmation, caution is advised.
