Highlights:
Cardano ETF approval odds hit 79% on Polymarket, signaling growing investor confidence for 2025.
Bloomberg raises Cardano ETF approval odds to 90%, with SEC talks boosting optimism.
Despite ETF optimism, Cardano's price faces a 1% decline amid ongoing market volatility.
The odds for a Cardano (ADA) ETF approval in 2025 have reached 79%, marking the highest level ever recorded on Polymarket. This surge signals growing optimism about the potential approval of a Cardano ETF, reflecting increased confidence among market participants.
Growing Optimism Around Cardano ETF Approval
Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has seen a sharp rise in the odds for the approval of a Cardano ETF by 2025. As of now, the likelihood stands at 79%, which is the highest it has been since the market began tracking this event.
The increased probability indicates that more investors and analysts are expecting the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve a spot Cardano ETF soon.
Earlier this year, the odds hovered around 60% to 70%, but since May, there has been a consistent increase. The approval chances now suggest growing confidence in the cryptocurrency market and its regulatory landscape. Bloomberg ETF analysts have also raised the likelihood of the SEC approving several crypto ETFs, including those for XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano, to 90%.
US SEC Meetings With Asset Managers Fuels ADA ETF Odds
The increased likelihood of the Cardano ETF approval is attributable to a mixture of favorable regulatory indicators along with increasing institutional cryptocurrency interest. With the SEC still in negotiation with different asset managers, the authorization of crypto ETFs is increasingly looking like a possibility, with Cardano being one of them.
According to Bloomberg senior ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, SEC spokespersons have been interacting positively with asset managers, which has helped boost their confidence in the ETF green light.
The SEC, specifically has expressed a readiness to wade through regulatory hurdles that have in the past stalled such approvals under new US SEC chair Paul Atkins. With the institutional interest in crypto assets picking up, ETFs provide an opportunity to invest in the digital asset without directly owning them.
Cardano’s Market Sentiment Faces Volatility
Despite the optimism surrounding the potential ETF approval, Cardano’s price and market sentiment have been facing some challenges.
Over the last few days, Cardano has been in a continuous down streak, and its price has decreased by more than 1% at the time of writing. It is the fifth bearish day in a row of Cardano, following the recent Israel-Iran war that led to huge liquidation in the crypto market.
The ADA price decline comes as Cardano whales, have recently offloaded a large portion of their holdings following the crypto market bearish trend. Based on Santiment data, investors between 100 million and 1 billion ADA purchased 230 million ADA last Monday, but sold their ADA by Wednesday. This sudden shift in holdings reflects some uncertainty among large investors, particularly in light of recent developments around Cardano’s investment plan and potential market trends.
