Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, three U.S. economic indicators could impact the portfolios of cryptocurrency traders and investors. The potential implications are more concerning, given the volatility seen in the price of Bitcoin ($BTC ) during the weekend.
Traders looking to capitalize on anticipated volatility can brace for the upcoming U.S. economic events this week.
U.S. economic indicators that will drive Bitcoin volatility this week
According to Lisa Abramowicz, co-host of Bloomberg Surveillance, the U.S. economic surprise index has become the most negative this year. More precisely, an increasing number of economic indicators are coming in weaker than analysts initially expected.
Bloomberg’s U.S. economic surprise index. Source: Lisa Abramowicz on X
Against this backdrop, the following U.S. economic indicators could drive Bitcoin volatility amid ongoing geopolitical tensions this week.
Powell's testimony
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, June 24. The testimony comes as part of his semi-annual commitment to report the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to Congress.
Powell will address the state of the U.S. economy, monetary policy, inflation, employment, and other economic factors before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee.
In addition to prepared remarks, there will be a Q&A session with legislators, which could impact financial markets due to their insights into future Fed policy.
This U.S. economic indicator is particularly significant given the U.S. role in the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Following Iran's move to close the Strait of Hormuz, which effectively threatens about 25% of global oil flow and raises energy risks, comments on price policy in response to energy shocks will be crucial.
Powell's speech came after the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged despite political pressure from President Donald Trump.
A hawkish tone indicating interest rate rises or inflation concerns could lead to a decline in Bitcoin, similar to what occurred in April 2025 amid tariff fears from Trump.
However, a dovish tone suggesting rate cuts could bolster Bitcoin, reinforcing its position above $100,000 following the recent drop.
Neutral statements, like those made in February, may keep Bitcoin stable, but volatility is likely to persist.
"Chairman Powell's testimony - home prices and the PCE inflation index will lead markets to shift their focus away from the Middle East unless there are new escalations. Macro elements are in focus," said market expert Peter Tarr in a post.
Initial jobless claims
In addition to Powell's speech, cryptocurrency markets will also watch initial jobless claims as the U.S. labor market gradually becomes a strong macro factor for Bitcoin. For the week ending June 14, the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance for the first time reached 245,000.
Exceeded expectations, adding to a series of claims reflecting the highest readings since last October. However, amid ongoing economic uncertainty, economists expect more initial jobless claims, with an average forecast of 248,000.
Increasing claims may indicate an economic slowdown, which could support Bitcoin as traders anticipate federal rate cuts, especially amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueling risk-off sentiment. Conversely, lower claims may strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on cryptocurrency prices.
PCE
Capping the list of U.S. economic indicators with implications for cryptocurrencies this week is the PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures. This macroeconomic indicator measures the average change in prices for goods and services consumed by U.S. households.
The U.S. PCE is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation due to its broad scope and ability to account for consumer substitutes.
PCE rose by 2.1% year-over-year in April, with core PCE reaching 2.5%. According to data on MarketWatch, economists expect May's PCE to rise to 2.3% while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is projected to reach 2.6%.
higher-than-expected PCE may indicate persistent inflation, strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on Bitcoin's price, especially amid tensions in the Middle East. A lower PCE could support Bitcoin by raising hopes for rate cuts.
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