Block Vision 2024.1.11 Market Analysis

Let’s talk about the conclusion first: looking at the long-term trend, BTC has entered a bull market. But looking at the medium-term trend, it will experience a downward trend in the coming months. The market will first consolidate at a high level for a period of time and then start to pull back. There is no need to chase the rise of the market now. It is a fish-tail market, so you can look for opportunities for copycats.

Let’s talk about the operation: What should our friends who have followed us in laying out the Ether series copycats do next? Slowly sell out the position, selling part of it every 5% increase. Ether is a small stage pressure level at 2750-2800.

Finally, I will give you an analysis of why ETFs pass through the market but are fish tail market?

1) Profitable funds are very large

After nearly three and a half months of market conditions, most currencies in the market have generally risen. There are stocks with large increases such as Inscriptions, which are dozens of times higher. Those with medium market capitalization have increased by 10 times, and those with large market capitalization have basically increased by 2 to 3 times. In the past few months, as long as bulls did not open high-leverage contracts, they were basically making money, and there has been no decent correction.

2) Eventually the funds will be exhausted and the main funds have begun to withdraw.

In December, we have experienced the inscription climax, the sol explosion, the depin market, layer2, and the Polkadot ecology sector rotation. It can be clearly seen that the intensity of the rise will continue to decrease. And when the subsequent sectors rise, the previously rising sectors will begin to fall. This is because the buying funds for the next market are exhausted, and most of the market is in a full position or leveraged state, so you need to sell one coin and buy a new coin.

3) Retail investors in the market are generally bullish

There are no KOLs on Twitter who are bearish now. The most common argument is to adjust to 4.2w and then continue to rise. Within each major group, the situation is basically bullish. Generally, positions are relatively heavy. This means that when all the leeks taking over the order are heavily loaded, there will be no funds left to take over the order.