Intensifying Middle East conflict and surging geopolitical risk are igniting a dramatic market realignment, driving investors into energy, defense, commodities, and inflation-protected assets as volatility erupts.
As markets reopen, investors brace for extreme volatility, with surging oil prices drawing fresh scrutiny on inflation forecasts. Brent crude faces further upside amid fears of Iranian retaliation and the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts now warn crude could spike toward $130 per barrel depending on Iran’s response. Green cautioned: “Such a price shock would filter through to global inflation, which remains elevated and/or sticky in many regions.” He added that anticipated rate cuts by central banks like the Federal Reserve may no longer be feasible: “A sustained surge in oil makes rate cuts very difficult to justify. If inflation spikes back up, monetary policymakers will be forced to hold, and possibly even reconsider the easing cycle altogether.”
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