Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal claims that macroeconomic data suggests the current cryptocurrency cycle could extend into the second quarter of 2026.
The current cryptocurrency market is reflecting the pattern seen in 2017, when Bitcoin recorded a steady upward trend throughout the year before skyrocketing in December, according to Raoul Pal, CEO of the cryptocurrency research platform Real Vision.
"It is disturbingly similar to 2017," Pal stated in a video on Thursday. Pal said he is starting to forecast a longer crypto cycle this time, given that the economic cycle score—a macroeconomic model he uses to track the evolution of the global economy in the broader cycle—"is still below 50" and generally "takes a while to rise."
Pal speculated that the weakening of the U.S. dollar could indicate that the current cryptocurrency cycle is still far from reaching its peak.
"With the dollar's decline even today, it starts to suggest that this could extend into the second quarter of 2026," he stated. Since January 1, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has dropped by 8.99%, standing at 98.77 at the time of publication, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin and the DXY are inversely correlated.
When the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not only as a speculative investment but also as an alternative currency.
