Current Price: $102,382.90 | Fear & Greed Index: 40 (Fear)
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๐ Technical Overview
Bitcoin has been trading in a volatile range after failing to hold above the $110,700 resistance level. The price action shows several key support and resistance zones, with a clear breakdown from the recent rising wedge patternโa bearish signal.
๐ Key Levels Observed:
Resistance Zone #1: $110,700 (previous top before rejection)
Resistance Zone #2: $108,932 โ $106,645 (supply zone)
Resistance Zone #3: $104,359 (minor bearish order block)
Support Zone #1: $100,305 (major local support)
Support Zone #2: $99,785 (psychological and technical level)
Support Zone #3: $98,700 โ next major demand zone if breakdown continues
The price is currently hovering just above $102,000 and has bounced multiple times off the $100,305 level, indicating this is a critical support zone. A sustained break below this level could trigger a steeper decline toward the $98,700 area.
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๐ Volume & Momentum
Volume is slightly declining, signaling a lack of strong buying interest. The recent candles show selling pressure increasing as BTC fails to reclaim key resistance levels.
MA(5): 31,359 (above current price)
MA(10): 25,846 (well below, no immediate support)
This shows BTC is trading below its short-term moving averages, indicating bearish momentum in the 4H time frame.
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๐ Pattern Analysis
Rising Wedge Breakdown: The sharp drop from $110,700 followed a rising wedge formation, which typically signals a bearish reversal.
Supply Zones Acting Strong: Repeated rejections from the $106kโ$108k area indicate sellers are defending this zone aggressively.
Support Holding for Now: Bulls are trying to defend $100k, but consistent lower highs suggest weakening buyer strength.
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๐จ Sentiment Insight (Fear & Greed Index: 40 - Fear)
The market is currently in the Fear zone, suggesting retail traders are cautious or exiting positions. Historically, fear zones can offer buying opportunities, but only when technical confirmation appears (e.g., bullish engulfing, reclaiming resistance).
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๐ฎ Price Prediction: Short-Term Outlook (Next 2โ5 Days)
Scenario 1: Bullish Case (35% probability)
Price holds above $100,305 support
Reclaims $104,359 resistance
Targets $106,645โ$108,932 for potential relief rally
Scenario 2: Bearish Case (65% probability)
Breaks below $100,305 with volume
Targets $99,785 initially
If this level fails, next support lies near $98,700
If BTC closes a 4H candle below $100,300 with strong volume, expect a further drop. On the flip side, if it manages to reclaim $104,000 and close above, a relief rally may push it toward $BTC
