๐ Key Indicators & Data
1. Price: $16.96 (-3.25%)
๐ป Trading below all EMAs โ deep bearish zone
2. ๐ EMAs:
EMA(7): $17.79
EMA(25): $19.61
EMA(99): $21.77
๐ด Bearish alignment across all timeframes
3. ๐งจ Momentum Extremes:
RSI(6): 19.24 โ lowest on record
StochRSI: 1.64 / 1.46 โ near-zero โ Max reversal signal
4. ๐ Volume:
Current: 568,076 AVAX
MA(5): 1.81M | MA(10): 2.07M
๐ Only 31% of average = capitulation exhaustion
5. ๐ Support/Resistance Levels:
๐ก Support: $16.32 โ $15.79 โ $15.00 (psych)
๐งฑ Resistance: $17.64 โ $17.79 (EMA7) โ $18.11
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๐ Price Prediction
โณ Short-Term (12โ24H)
๐ 85% probability of retesting $16.32
๐ผ Bounce โ up to $17.64โ17.79 (4โ5% gain)
๐ป Break โ drop to $15.79 (3.3% drop)
๐งช Catalyst: RSI < 20 + StochRSI โ 0 = Strongest reversal setup since 2022
๐ Medium-Term (3โ7 Days)
๐ข Bullish Case (30%):
Hold $16.32 โ recover to $18.11โ19.61
๐ด Bearish Case (70%):
Break $16.32 โ drop to $15.00
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๐ง Trade Plan
๐ด SHORT TRADE (Momentum Breakdown โ 60% Probability)
Entry:
๐ฃ $16.90 (now)
๐ผ $17.30 (dead cat bounce)
Targets:
๐ฏ $16.32 (TP1 โ 50%)
๐ฏ $15.79 (TP2 โ full exit)
Stop Loss: โ $17.70
โ๏ธ Risk/Reward: 1:10+
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๐ข LONG TRADE (Extreme Reversal โ 40% Probability)
Entry:
๐ $16.35โ$16.40 (bounce zone)
Targets:
๐ฏ $16.96 (break-even)
๐ฏ $17.64 (24h high โ 60% exit)
๐ฏ $17.79 (EMA7 โ full exit)
Stop Loss: โ $16.25
โ Confirmation:
StochRSI > 5
๐ Volume spike > 1M AVAX
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๐งฉ Critical Summary
๐ด SHORT TRADE
Trigger: Breakdown below $16.80
Targets: $16.32 โ $15.79
Invalidation: 4h close > $17.70
๐ข LONG TRADE
Trigger: Bounce at $16.35 with confirmation
Targets: $17.64 โ $17.79
Invalidation: 4h close < $16.25
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๐ก Risk Management Protocol
๐ผ Capital Allocation: Max 0.7% per trade
โ๏ธ Leverage: Max 3x (high volatility coin)
๐ Adjustments:
๐ป Break < $16.25 โ Extend short to $15.00
๐ผ Break > $17.70 โ Extend long to $18.11โ19.61
๐ Execution Rule: Confirm entries via 4h candle close
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โ ๏ธ Final Warning
> ๐งจ AVAXโs RSI 19.24 + StochRSI 1.64 = historic oversold zone
๐ฃ Reversal risk is high โ rebound could exceed 10%+ intraday
๐ Watch Bitcoin dominance + Avalanche subnet activity
๐ธ Only trade with risk capital โ preserve capital in high-volatility zones
Take Trade From here $AVAX
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