Israel's ongoing attacks on Iran could lead to regime collapse, with major oil price consequences

The Israeli military has been bombing Iran for eight days straight, and senior officials now say this could lead to the collapse of Tehran’s regime. If that happens, the oil market is staring down a potential global price surge.

According to a report by CNBC, this war is not only about nuclear weapons. It’s now inching toward a possible power vacuum in one of the most important oil-producing countries in the world.

So far, prices have gone up about 10%, but both Brent and US crude are still below $80 per barrel. That’s because the fighting hasn’t touched physical oil flows… yet. But analysts are warning that the longer this war goes on, the harder it’ll be for global markets to stay calm.

Israel raises the stakes as Trump signals support

President Donald Trump has publicly threatened Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is reportedly considering backing Israel in its plans to hit Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Officials in Washington and Jerusalem are now talking about political consequences.

Defense Minister Israel Katz told the army to escalate attacks with the aim of “destabilizing the regime.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while denying that regime change is the official goal, did admit that the current Iranian leadership might not survive the war.

Scott Modell, a former CIA officer and now CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, said Israel wants to weaken the regime’s military control to give domestic opposition a shot at toppling the system from inside. “They’re not calling it regime change from without, they’re calling it regime change from within,” Modell said. Israel reportedly planned to kill Khamenei early in the campaign, but Trump blocked the decision.

Despite the talk, Modell added that there’s no actual sign the regime is about to collapse. But Natasha Kaneva, who leads global commodities research at JPMorgan, warned that if the country starts falling apart politically, oil prices could stay much higher for a long time.#USNationalDebt