Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal claims that macroeconomic data suggests the current cryptocurrency cycle could extend into the second quarter of 2026.
Raoul Pal: The crypto cycle is developing in an unsettlingly similar way to 2017
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The current cryptocurrency market is reflecting the pattern observed in 2017, when Bitcoin recorded a steady upward trend throughout the year before skyrocketing in December, according to Raoul Pal, CEO of the cryptocurrency research platform Real Vision.
"It's unsettlingly similar to 2017," Pal stated in a video on Thursday. Pal said he is starting to forecast a longer crypto cycle this time, given that the economic cycle score — a macroeconomic model he uses to track the evolution of the global economy in the broader cycle — "remains below 50" and generally "takes time to rise."
Macroeconomic data, catalysts for a prolonged cryptocurrency cycle
Bitcoin (BTC) started in 2017 trading around USD 1,044, before reaching USD 2,187 on May 31 and closing the year at USD 14,156, representing an approximate increase of 1,255% from its price at the beginning of the year, according to CoinMarketCap data.
"With the dollar's decline even today, it starts to suggest that this could extend into the second quarter of 2026," he stated. Since January 1, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has fallen by 8.99%, sitting at 98.77 at the time of publication, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin and the DXY are inversely correlated.
When the dollar weakens, BTC becomes more attractive not only as a speculative investment but also as an alternative currency.
Pal stated that macroeconomic data has likely been the main catalyst for further delaying the cryptocurrency cycle.
"It's as if the entire cycle has shifted because rates weren't adjusted; the dollar remained sideways for a while," he said.
He also said that current market conditions may resemble those of 2020 more than those of 2021, suggesting that the market could be in an earlier growth phase than many assume.
"The mandate" of the Middle East is AI and blockchain
Bitcoin started 2020 at USD 7,174, but fell 27% to USD 5,227 in March. It then recovered 129% to reach USD 11,990 in August, and finally ended the year at USD 28,993, representing a 304% increase from its price at the beginning of the year.
Pal stated that for the market to continue expanding, it is necessary to keep attracting the 'big players.' He recounted his recent trip to the Middle East, where he met with sovereign funds and stated that most had a bullish outlook on cryptocurrencies:
"The mandate across the region, from Saudi Arabia to Abu Dhabi, through Dubai, Bahrain, and Qatar, is AI and blockchain."
"It's not just about using bitcoin as a reserve asset, but also building all government infrastructure on blockchain"