What does the behavior of gold and oil tell us about the evolution of the Iran-Israel conflict? José Luis Cava wonders if Iran will need to cut traffic primarily through the Strait of Hormuz to trigger an increase in oil prices and thereby harm the rest of the world. According to the expert, it does not need to. 'It is enough for its threats to be credible for the premiums that insurers require to insure shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to increase, and in this way, traffic through the strait is restricted.'
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is operating at lower levels, but it is still functioning. 'What happens is that risk premiums are increasing. Furthermore, if it were to be partially cut, it would worsen the geopolitical situation and could provide an excuse for the United States to intervene in the conflict. China could even intervene.'
Based on the charts, what is the current situation of the war? First, he looks at gold, 'which surpassed the 3,400 mark with the first bombings, went up to 3,450, but is around 3,350. The surpassing of 3,400 and the inability to maintain levels above the gold price in dollars clearly shows us that geopolitical tensions are not being taken into account by the markets, or they have significantly lowered the risk.'
