After an amazing ascent early in 2025, bringing Bitcoin close to levels around 110,000 dollars, the market began to show a noticeable slowdown. Today, Bitcoin is trading around 103,000$, amid fears of breaking the strongest psychological barrier at 100k. Are we facing a healthy correction? Or is the market preparing for a major reversal?
📉 First: Technical Analysis
🔹 Critical levels:
Key support:
100,000 USD (important psychological and technical level). Any clear break below it with a daily close could push the price towards:
97,500$
Then 94,000$
And perhaps 89,000$ as a distant support.
Nearby resistance:
105,000 – 106,000 USD: The price tried to break through it multiple times but failed, making it a strong selling zone.
🔹 Technical indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Neutral with a downward tendency (~48 points), indicating room for further decline before reaching oversold conditions.
MACD: Shows a negative crossover, confirming the beginning of a short or medium-term correction wave.
📊 Second: Time-Based Analysis
🔸 Short-term (1–2 weeks):
Continued fluctuation between 100K and 105K is likely.
Breaking support means a swift move to 97–95 thousand.
🔸 Medium-term (1–2 months):
If maintaining 100K, we may see a return to test levels of 110K and 115K, especially with improved institutional liquidity.
However, breaking 94K could lead to a bigger collapse that may extend to 85–88K.
🔸 Long-term (3–6 months):
The overall outlook remains positive, and Bitcoin may return to test levels of 125–140 thousand dollars as the second half of 2025 approaches, especially with increased demand from ETF funds.
🧠 Third: Fundamental Analysis
📌 Supporting factors for an increase:
Institutional Adoption: An increasing number of companies and investment funds entering the market.
Effective Bitcoin ETFs: Inject massive liquidity and open the door for traditional investors.
📌 Pressure factors:
Tightening regulatory scrutiny: Especially in Europe and the United States.
Global geopolitical situation: Tensions are causing a temporary aversion to high-risk assets.
🧭 The optimal strategy for investors now:
Investor type Recommendation
Short-term Monitor 100K closely, and enter only after a break or a rebound, do not open positions amid uncertainty.
Medium-term Use a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy with every drop towards 95–98K.
Long-term No need to worry, Bitcoin is still in a long-term upward trend, invest wisely and wait for the reward.
🏁 Summary:
Bitcoin is now in the "deciding zone". The current price (103,000$) is caught between a rock and a hard place:
Holding above 100K could be a new launch towards new peaks in the coming months.
A break below it could bring us back to the 2022 scenario, when the market lost confidence for a period.
