1. Bearish retail sentiment, but whales are buying

Bitcoin dropped from around $106K to low-104K last session, with sentiment metrics hitting lows not seen since early April—yet large holders continue accumulating .

2. Technical setup: range-bound action

BTC is likely to stay between $100K–$110K in the short term. Analysts suggest strong support could hold at levels near $103–$100K, with next potential fall targets between $97.6K–$92.8K .

3. Network dynamics – splits & institutional activity

The rise in Bitcoin Knots nodes may eventually lead to a network split, which could affect price stability .

Institutional concentration is growing: 216 entities now hold about 30% of supply, raising centralization concerns .

4. Macro factors & ETF positioning

Bitcoin recently broke above $105K, helped by improving risk appetite, though macro outlook including Fed policy and Middle East tensions remain potential drags .

Forecasts range widely: conservative analysts expect a summer consolidation, while some technical models predict a cycle peak toward $220K by mid-2026 .