Live Analysis of BTC/USDT Perpetual Futures (1D Timeframe)
1. Price Action & Wyckoff (Effort vs. Result)
Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.Ā Ā Ā Ā Effort = Result Principle: Recently, price reached the 106,000ā107,000 USDT resistance zone while volume decreased, suggesting waning buying pressure and a potential corrective move.
Ā Ā Ā Ā 2.Ā Ā Ā Ā According to Binance data (March 2025), after an accumulation phase the market entered a markup phase with a clear Sign of Strength (SOS) and gradually rising volume.
2. ICT and Smart Money Concepts
Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.Ā Ā Ā Ā Supply and Demand Zones: The 106ā107 k zone is confirmed as a strong supply area.
Ā Ā Ā Ā 2.Ā Ā Ā Ā Market Structure: On the daily timeframe, a Lower High has formed, indicating a likely retracement toward 100ā102 k.
3. Fundamental Analysis
Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.Ā Ā Ā Ā Open Interest & Volume: Open interest is elevated, but 24-hour trading volume has declined, implying that professional traders are awaiting a clearer directional signal.
Ā Ā Ā Ā 2.Ā Ā Ā Ā Funding Rate: Slightly positive, indicating long bias and the risk of a funding-rate-induced reversal.
4. Volume Profile & Order Flow
Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.Ā Ā Ā Ā Point of Control (POC): The highest-volume traded area lies between 103ā105 k.
Ā Ā Ā Ā 2.Ā Ā Ā Ā Order Flow: Large sell orders are clustered around 106ā107 k, increasing the likelihood of a downturn from that zone.
Trade Recommendations (Swing / Intraday)
StrategyĀ Ā Ā Ā Entry ZoneĀ Ā Ā Ā Target (TP)Ā Ā Ā Ā Stop Loss (SL)Ā Ā Ā Ā R/R Ratio
ConservativeĀ Ā Ā Ā Short at 106,000ā106,500Ā Ā Ā Ā 102,500Ā Ā Ā Ā 107,200 (+150 pts)Ā Ā Ā Ā ~1:2
AggressiveĀ Ā Ā Ā Long at 103,000ā103,500Ā Ā Ā Ā 107,000ā107,500Ā Ā Ā Ā 102,000 (below VAL)Ā Ā Ā Ā ~1:3
ā¶ļø Most Probable Path Next Few Days
Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.Ā Ā Ā Ā Correction from the supply zone (106ā107 k) down to 102ā103 k.
Ā Ā Ā Ā 2.Ā Ā Ā Ā Rebound from 102ā103 k to retest the supply zone.
Suggested Sequence:
Ā Ā Ā Ā 1.Ā Ā Ā Ā Enter a short position at 106ā107 k, targeting 102.5 k with SL above 107.2 k.
Ā Ā Ā Ā 2.Ā Ā Ā Ā If price falls to 103ā102 k, open a long reversal trade targeting 107 k, with SL below 102 k.
Key Concepts Defined
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Wyckoff Phases: After markup, a markdown phase often follows.
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā SOS (Sign of Strength): A Wyckoff concept indicating strong buying interest.
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Lower High: In ICT/SMC, a swing high lower than the previous high signals bearish structure.
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā POC (Point of Control): Volume Profile level with the most traded volume.
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā VAL (Value Area Low): Lower boundary of the 70 % volume range.
Execution Notes
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Use precise stop-loss placement.
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Manage margin if volatility spikes.
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Consider a trailing stop to lock in profits.
Recommended Tools
Ā Ā Ā Ā ā¢Ā Ā Ā Ā Order Flow & Volume Clusters: Bookmap or Cignals for detailed flow visualization.
Conclusion
$BTC
A conservative short at 106ā107 k offers a favorable risk/reward targeting 102.5 k. Subsequently, a long reversal at 103ā102 k toward 107 k also presents a high-probability setup. This combined Wyckoff, ICT, and Volume Profile strategy maximizes success likelihood.