#USNationalDebt 📊 Current Debt Levels

Gross national debt stands at approximately $36.21 trillion as of June 4, 2025 .

Breakdown (as of March 6, 2025):

Public-held debt: ~$29 trillion

Intragovernmental holdings (loans between government agencies): ~$7.4 trillion .

The debt currently exceeds 120% of GDP, positioning it well above post–World War II levels .

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🔍 Deficit & Borrowing

Deficit for fiscal year 2025 (Oct–Sep): projected around $1.9 trillion .

Cumulative FY 2025 deficit through May: ~$1.4 trillion (≈7% higher than last year) .

Borrowing has surged: Q1 2025 saw issuance of $815 billion in new Treasury securities, up 12% YoY .

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💰 Borrowers & Bond Market Outlook

Domestic holders (mostly agencies, investors, Fed): $27 trillion) .

Foreign holdings: ~$8.2 trillion as of mid‑2024 .

Market reactions:

– Yields on 2- & 10‑year Treasuries remain elevated, partly due to Fed tightening and heavy issuance .

– Analyst group Societe Generale expects continued high yields and more bond issuance through 2025 .

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🌐 Global & Credit Implications

Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, 2025, citing fiscal trajectory .

Taiwan’s central bank voiced concern that rapid debt growth could undermine confidence in Treasuries—an alarm for global reserve managers .

Economists point to a possible “economic heart attack” if no debt reduction occurs. Some warn of a debt crisis within 4–5 years .

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🧩 Policy Shocks & Proposals

A major GOP tax-and-spending bill (nicknamed “One Big Beautiful Bill”) could add $2.8–$5 trillion to the deficit over the next decade .

Several economists (e.g., Rogoff, Dalio) caution these policies may worsen inflation, push yields higher, and increase default risk .

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🧠 Key Takeaways

Issue Outlook

Debt Growth Accelerating rapidly—surpassing post-WWII highs.

Affordability Interest payments are rising, with short-term rates elevated.

Market Risk Persistently high issuance and yields could unsettle investors.