$BTC The ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, potentially drawing in the US, are causing concern in the crypto market. Here's what you need to know:

Potential Impact on Crypto Market

Short-term Volatility: If the US joins the conflict, Bitcoin could drop 10-20% in value, dragging down Ethereum and other altcoins with it. This would likely trigger a fresh wave of panic selling in the crypto world.

Market Recovery: However, if a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough occurs, the crypto market could rebound within weeks, similar to its recovery after the Russia-Ukraine war.

Historical Context: In most geopolitical conflicts, including the Ukraine invasion, Bitcoin has recovered faster than other equities. However, Ethereum and altcoins may take longer to recover.

Current Market Sentiment

Polymarket Odds: The chances of US military action against Iran are currently at 62%, with over $5.3 million wagered on the outcome.

Investor Fear: The recent airstrike on Tehran has fueled the Israel-Iran war, impacting the broader crypto market and Bitcoin. Further concerns are building about the escalation of the war, especially with potential US involvement.

Key Factors to Watch

Geopolitical Uncertainty: Increased tensions can cause investors to move away from perceived 'riskier' assets, triggering sell-offs.

Macroeconomic Stability: Concerns about global supply chains, energy markets, and investor confidence in traditional financial structures may also impact the crypto market.