#美国国债 US Treasury Yield Curve: A Warning Signal for Economic Recession

The US Treasury yield curve reflects the interest rates of bonds with different maturities, usually with long-term rates higher than short-term rates. However, when short-term rates exceed long-term rates (i.e., an inverted yield curve), it is often seen as a precursor to economic recession. For example, in 2023, the yield curve inverted between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds, followed by a slowdown in the US economic growth. Historical data shows that every time the yield curve has inverted in the past 50 years, the US has experienced an economic recession. Therefore, investors closely monitor this indicator to adjust their investment strategies and mitigate market risks.