$BTC $ETH
Today's Viewpoint:
Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a small breakthrough in a minor cyclical pattern. I first went long, then closed my long position, and the entry was quite good. I later opened a short position, which I am currently holding, and I can post my order soon.
Let's talk about Bitcoin first. It is in a sideways consolidation during a 5-minute downtrend, with the minor cycle having broken downwards. The support is at the lower bounds of the sideways oscillation zones on the 1H, 4H, and daily charts.
Two possible scenarios:
1. If the minor cycle downtrend can transmit to a major cycle breakdown, could this trigger the start of a downward trend in the major cycle? This needs time to verify. If a large bearish candle breaks the 101,000 level, it could trigger a significant drop or a quick rebound after breaking down, forming a flag pattern.
2. If the current support in the major cycle holds, and the downward strength in the minor cycle weakens without breaking the support, it may continue to oscillate. In this case, the 5-minute minor cycle could reverse and rise, closing all short positions.
Conclusion: Continue to hold the minor cycle short position, with a stop loss in place. It is crucial to closely observe the upward and downward breakouts of the sideways consolidation in the minor cycle for subsequent positions or trading directions.
Ethereum: The lower bounds of the 4-hour sideways oscillation zone have not yet broken, providing support. One can reduce part of the position. The 1H and lower cycles are transitioning from a downtrend to sideways; it is essential to focus on the structure or direction of a sudden breakdown in the 5-minute chart, which will be the main trading direction moving forward.
We are currently at a turning point, which is also a critical point for switching between long and short positions. Do not guess the direction or gamble; the success rate is only 33.3%. Maintain good risk control and patiently wait. This is a major cycle transition point, which requires time. Of course, regarding Bitcoin, risks still exist, and this viewpoint has not changed.
