✅ 1. Overall trend on D1 timeframe
BTC price had a strong increase from around 76,000 to a peak of over 112,000, then corrected.
Currently forming a distribution price pattern or possibly a failed inverted head-and-shoulders.
Subsequent peaks do not surpass previous peaks → a sign of losing bullish momentum.
Large liquidity was attracted at the peak around 112,000–108,000 and recently at 105,000–106,000.
The price is moving sideways in the 100,000–108,000 range, indicating an accumulation or distribution phase.
2. Short-term trend on H4 timeframe
There is a lower high - lower low pattern, meaning a clear downtrend is forming.
The nearest short-term support zone is around 102,000–103,000, which has been swept away by candlesticks in the downtrends → this is a weak liquidity zone that has been broken.
The current strong resistance zone is at 105,000–106,500 (with old liquidity and resistance that has not been tested yet).
Price action clearly shows liquidity sweeps above and strong push downs, a sign of smart money manipulation.Main trend: SHORT-TERM DOWN - MEDIUM-TERM CORRECTION
BTC is in a short-term distribution phase after failing to break a new high.
Price action shows that sellers are in control through liquidity sweeps and downward pressure.
✅Most likely scenario:
BTC slightly recovers to the 104,500–105,500 zone and sweeps the recent high.
Then continue to fall sharply to the 100,000 zone or lower to sweep liquidity below.
If the 100,000 zone is broken decisively, the decline can extend to 96,000–92,000 (hard support D1).
Disclamer: This article is for reference only and does not encourage investment.