CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Aleman has predicted, based on historical patterns, that the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $205,097 — this will be the extreme of the current market cycle.

According to him, metrics like MVRV, HODL waves, SOPR, or exchange reserve dynamics are useful — they "provide insight into what is happening on-chain and help make informed decisions."

"The constant search for micro-signals to extract insights, while often useful, sometimes distracts from larger cyclical factors that truly impact the long-term dynamics of Bitcoin," noted Aleman.

The analyst suggests paying attention to the chart of digital gold's returns since 2011 — it shows a repeating cycle: "three years of growth are followed by a year of consolidation, which corresponds to the four-year rhythm of halvings."