The cryptocurrency community is placing significant wagers on the swift progression of U.S. legislation to regulate payment stablecoins, following a decisive Senate vote and a public endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Online betting platform Polymarket currently indicates an 90% probability that the “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins,” or GENIUS Act, will pass both the Senate and House of Representatives and be signed into law by the president before 2026. This betting market launched shortly after the bill cleared the Senate with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday.
President Trump has publicly called for the House to pass the GENIUS Act “LIGHTNING FAST” and send it to his desk “ASAP — NO DELAYS, NO ADD ONS,” signaling his intent to sign it quickly.
While the bill’s support in the House remains to be seen, particularly given potential amendments related to concerns over Trump’s crypto industry connections, including World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin, USD1, a majority of senators voted against a similar amendment before the GENIUS Act’s final passage.
Should the GENIUS Act become law, it could significantly impact the U.S. financial landscape, potentially paving the way for major U.S. companies like Apple and Google to issue their own stablecoins for transaction settlement. This follows reports of such considerations by tech giants and inquiries from senators to Meta regarding similar plans.
The Republican-controlled House is also expected to soon vote on the CLARITY Act, a separate bill that aims to establish a broader crypto market structure framework and clarify the roles of U.S. financial regulators over digital assets. This bill recently passed out of committee.
It’s important to note that Polymarket odds reflect the sentiment and financial commitment of crypto users, rather than a definitive prediction of legislative outcomes.
