📈 1. General technical trend assessment
Daily moving average position: Bitcoin price has reached the 50-day EMA and is currently oscillating below it, with a risk of testing support.
Volatility is clearly converging: ATR has significantly decreased, and the Bollinger Bands are also narrowing - this 'low-volume consolidation' often signals that a big move is about to unfold.
2. Key support and resistance areas (Daily)
Amount range Analysis role
$104,300–$103,750 Short-term strong support zone; if broken, prices may test mid-term support.
$101,000–$99,520 Secondary support area; if this area is broken, special attention should be paid to weakening trends.
$105,960–$107,960 Upward resistance zone; if it pulls back without breaking through, it will form 'limited rebound'.
$108,000–$109,000 Mid-term breakout point; if successfully broken, there is still upward extension space.
3. Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, KDJ, etc.)
RSI (30 minutes): Slightly above the midpoint (about 54), showing neutral to bullish.
MACD: Shows a slight golden cross, suggesting there is still potential for a short-term upward movement, but must be confirmed with volume.
Keltner + Bollinger Bands: Clearly shows volatility convergence. If a narrow breakout occurs, the market may quickly expand.
ADX (DMI Component): Long-term support is still in place, but short-term is still in a range consolidation with no clear trend.
4. Institutional sentiment and fund flow
ETF funds continue to flow in: Saxo Bank report mentions IBIT ETF added $104 million, indicating stable institutional bullish sentiment.
Whale continues to buy: Analyses indicate that institutional investors are actively accumulating, while retail side still has short-term selling pressure.
5. Integration of bullish and bearish views
Bullish view: If it can hold above $104.3K / 50EMA and break through $106K, the target looks at $109K or even $112K+.
Bearish view: If $104.3K breaks down, once it falls below $103K, it may test $101K or lower, with a short-term risk of 5–10% pullback.
🔎 Comprehensive strategy suggestions
Current layout can be divided into two phases:
If the price retraces to $104.3–$103.8K and indicators do not show significant weakness, consider periodic investments on dips.
If it pulls back to $105.9–106K and fails to break through, a short-term rebound short position can be executed.
Risk control position setup:
Long position protection stop loss set below $103.7K (support protection).
Short positions can be set above $108K or at key resistance levels.
Monitor volume and news stimuli:
If a breakout occurs with significant volume, it can be followed up with a long position.
If no explosive breakout is seen or the market shows macro bearishness, adjustments or exits should be made quickly.
Set clear levels:
Support: $104.3K, $103.7K, $101K.
Resistance: $106K, $108–109K, $112K+.
✅ Today's summary
The market is currently in a low-volume consolidation phase, with short-term waiting for a clear direction.
Signals are bullish, and there are entry opportunities near support, but the risk of breakout failure must be emphasized.
Volume and key technical levels will determine the market direction; closely monitor if there is a significant volume breakout trend within the next few hours.
