Hello crypto friends! Meet again with SantuyTrader ๐. This time we will discuss the latest condition of Bitcoin (BTC) โ starting from the hottest news affecting prices, opinions from analysts and the community, to this week's technical analysis. Letโs check it out to stay calm but profitable! ๐
1. Latest News Affecting BTC Prices ๐ฅ
Many fresh news from the oven that have been causing Bitcoin prices to move slightly lately. Here is a summary of some important news and current macro issues:
Fed Policy & US Inflation: The US Central Bank (The Fed) this week held interest rates (as per market expectations), but remained hawkish or cautious regarding inflation. This means they are ready to raise rates again if inflation persists. Fortunately, the inflation data for May in the US was relatively calm โ headline CPI only rose by 0.1% (month-over-month), below the prediction of 0.2%, and core inflation also only rose by 0.1% vs the estimate of 0.3%. This improvement in inflation is good news for risk assets like crypto, as the Fed is not pressured to abruptly slow down the economy. However, there are still other global economic issues, such as the potential for a new trade war, making investors cautious.
Crypto Regulation Becomes Clearer: Amid market concerns, there is fresh air from the regulatory front. The US Senate has just passed the Stablecoin Bill โ this step is seen as likely to create a more friendly regulatory climate for crypto in the future. This positive signal was welcomed by industry players, increasing institutional confidence that the rules of the game for crypto will be clearer and supportive. In addition, news from the SEC (US Securities Authority) has also been somewhat surprising: they are reportedly starting discussions on DeFi regulations and even considering some exemptions for DeFi projects to operate more freely. As a result, DeFi tokens like UNI and AAVE soared by about 20% due to this optimism. Regulation that is becoming more pro-crypto is making market sentiment more positive.
Institutional Adoption & Inflow: Big money is still flowing into Bitcoin. For example, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF reportedly recorded a new daily inflow record recently โ indicating that institutional players are increasingly confident in entering BTC. Additionally, Circle, the issuer of USDC, successfully IPO'd on the NYSE earlier this June with a large valuation; its shares even soared 168% on the first day! This is a clear sign that Wall Street investors are more attracted to the crypto sector. Not to be outdone, popular stock broker Robinhood officially acquired the Bitstamp exchange for $200 million, aiming to serve global crypto trading, including to institutions. Steps like this show that institutional adoption of crypto continues to rise, strengthening Bitcoin's fundamental foundation. ๐ช
Market Sentiment: From a psychological market perspective, the current Fear & Greed index for crypto is around 70, which means it has entered the โGreedโ zone. This indicates that market participants are quite optimistic (sometimes even overconfident ๐ ). BTC's market dominance is also high (~60% of total crypto market cap), indicating that a lot of capital is shifting to Bitcoin as the main asset. However, there was also some negative news yesterday โ for instance, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) is still persistently investigating Binance (even though there are no official charges yet). Such news has caused some traders to feel a bit nervous, but the impact on BTC's price has not been very significant.
In essence, fundamentally/macro itโs a mixed bag: There are good news from tame inflation, friendly regulations, and institutional FOMO entering BTC ๐, but there are also concerns about Fed policy going forward and sell-offs from several major players. So how do the market and analysts react? Continue below.
2. Market Opinions: What Do Analysts and the Community Say? ๐
For analysts and figures in the crypto community, there is much discussion about the direction of Bitcoin next. Some are calmly bullish, while others remain cautious. Here are some of the latest views that SantuyTrader has summarized:
Healthy Consolidation Before Taking Off? According to Joel Kruger (LMAX strategist), technically Bitcoin is still consolidating bullishly. He says that the main trend for BTC remains positive, and for the past few weeks, the price has just been โtaking a short breakโ near the upper level. If Bitcoin successfully breaks its latest high (around >$110K), Kruger believes the next target could jump to $145,000 in the second half of this year. Wow, that could be quite a ride ๐ if it happens!
Many Taking Profits: On the other hand, on-chain data shows why BTC prices are stuck around ~$100-$110K. Some analysts point out that many short-term holders and miners are selling at this level, thus holding back the price increase. Markus Thielen (founder of 10x Research) notes that long-term investors (OG) have also been taking profits: massive profit-taking occurred in May and early June when BTC broke 100k. Just last week, wallets holding for >12 months sold Bitcoin with total profits of $1.2 billion! ๐ฎ As a result, even with significant demand from ETFs and institutions, the selling supply from short-term holders, miners, and some whales has caused the price to be stuck in a narrow range. The good side is, Thielen says that BTC's volatility is now low (like being pressed by a pillow), and usually after such a phase, โa breakout is just a matter of time.โ Like a spring coil being compressed, it will eventually explode in direction.
Is Bitcoin Maturing? Interestingly, there is a view that Bitcoin has entered a more mature phase. Jimmy Yang (co-founder of Orbit Markets) says that investors are no longer expecting crazy 10x returns in a short time from BTC, as the market cap has become large. Therefore, some long-term holders are starting to diversify some of their BTC into other assets (stocks, gold, etc.) for portfolio balance. This has caused Bitcoin buying actions to decrease compared to before when everyone was HODLing. But this doesn't mean bad prospects โ rather, it is a sign that BTC has become a stable main asset. In the near term, Yang also says that BTC's performance could follow the stock market: coincidentally, major stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) are approaching all-time highs. So if stocks break out upward, BTC could also be lifted in the rally ๐. However, currently entering the summer season, usually, the volume is low, and the market is somewhat quiet. This means there may not be any extremely fast movements โ just a wait-and-see approach.
Healthy Pullback, Then Accelerate Again: An analyst named Blume commented that it is very normal for Bitcoin to be โcooling downโ a bit now. Imagine, BTC just jumped from ~$75K in early April to >$100K in early June โ less than 2 months, thatโs a huge leap ๐ฅ. After such a sprint, it may need a little rest now. Blume says the decline that has occurred is quite shallow (only small dips) โ this is a sign of Bitcoin's bullish strength still being solid for the next rally. Like after running fast, BTC is now walking casually to catch its breath before running again. Veteran bitcoiners in the community also agree: as long as the corrections are gradual and do not break strong support, usually itโs just healthy consolidation before continuing to rise. ๐
Overall, market sentiment is still leaning towards optimism but with caution. The high Greed Index shows confidence, but data also tells us that many are pulling back the euphoria by taking some profits. So it's a mixed bag: bullish but ready with an umbrella just in case it rains. As the trader saying goes, โHope for the best but prepare for the worst.โ SantuyTrader keeps cool ๐ while monitoring continuously!
3. Current Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators ๐
Now comes the part we've been waiting for: the latest Bitcoin chart analysis. For beginner to intermediate traders, letโs break down the key levels and technical indicators for BTC this week, of course with a calm approach:
Price Range & Pattern: Currently, Bitcoin is still trapped in a relatively narrow consolidation range. It has been over 6 weeks with BTC holding above ~$100K without a significant breakout (a record, ~42 days back and forth in that area). The rough range is $100K โ $110K since the end of May until now. You could say BTC's chart is just sideways, like money on the side of the road waiting for a new trigger. Some analysts mention that this pattern resembles a rectangle base formation โ a sign that the market is looking for direction. Volatility is also decreasing (implied vol <40% according to derivative data), meaning price movements are relatively calm. But be careful, usually after such a quiet phase, a big movement will emerge next. Like a cloudy day, just waiting for either rain or sunshine again. โ
Main Support: Below, the strongest support for Bitcoin is at around $100,000 (one hundred thousand dollars). Besides being a psychological number, this level also coincides with the low range area earlier (around $99-100K) which has historically become a bounce point recently. Analysts see $99.7K as a key Heikin Ashi support level โ if it breaks, it could trigger a deeper decline. The nearest technical support is around $102K (the lower level of the current consolidation). If it breaks down below that, there is a correction scenario towards the zone of ~$92K to $89K (Fibonacci level 2.618) according to some analyses. So, $89-90K could be the next drop target if $100K fails to hold. But as long as this $100K support is strong, bulls can breathe easy for now. ๐
Main Resistance: Conversely, on the upper side, the nearest resistance for Bitcoin is around $105โ108K. Specifically, the area of $104.5K โ $106K is referred to as the pivot range that must be broken to trigger further increases. Levels ~$105,800 to $106,600 are also identified as temporary resistance zones currently (there are MA and supply areas there). If BTC successfully breaks out above $108K convincingly, it is likely to test the next resistance around $110K โ $112K. That is the upper band of the consolidation range, as well as the final boss before BTC hits a new all-time high ๐. After surpassing $112K, the sky will open wide โ we might see a further rally that is faster, in line with analysts' bullish targets (some mention $145K as mentioned earlier)๐.
RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin is currently around the 50s on the daily timeframe, which is neutral (not overbought or oversold). This is normal because the price is consolidating, so buying/selling momentum is balanced. It even fell below 50 during yesterday's pullback, indicating a โcooling downโ phase after the previous rally. The good news is that the RSI has cooled down from overbought levels, opening space for a potential rise later. On the weekly timeframe, RSI ~60-63 means it is still sufficiently strong bullish but not overly overbought. In essence, BTC's momentum is currently relaxed โ energy has been recharged after being oversold in yesterday's mini correction, ready to step on the gas if thereโs a trigger.
Moving Averages (EMA/SMA): In terms of moving averages, the long-term BTC trend is still safe above the main averages. For example, the 200-day moving average is still far below the current price (indicating that the major uptrend remains solid). However, in the short term, BTC fell below the EMA50 (50-day average) this week, which puts slight negative pressure. While below the EMA50, prices tend to be weak in the very short term. But donโt worry, the 7-day and 25-day MA lines are right below the current price, ready to act as minor support. Analysts from economies.com note that despite pressure from the EMA50, BTC is still trading above the short-term uptrend line, so the main trend remains bullish. Consider this consolidation as Bitcoin โtaking a little dip below EMA50, giving people a chance to enter againโ before continuing to rise. ๐
MACD: The MACD indicator on Bitcoin's daily chart was previously in a golden cross position (MACD line above the signal line, a bullish sign). However, recently the bullish signal has weakened โ as seen from the shrinking MACD histogram bars. This aligns with the previous sideways movement, as the upward trend has temporarily lost momentum. Nevertheless, the MACD on the weekly timeframe is still okay: the weekly green histogram is still intact (although it is starting to shrink a bit) and the overall weekly MACD remains positive. This means that the medium-long term BTC trend is still upward. Like a car, BTC's engine is idling for a moment โ but the engine is still running and ready to accelerate again if the pedal is pressed. ๐๐จ
Short-Term Predictions (Weekly): Combining all the above factors, the outlook for Bitcoin in the coming week is likely still in consolidation mode in the aforementioned range. Many analysts agree that BTC may be โstuckโ around $102K โ $108K for now, unless a strong new fundamental catalyst emerges. So donโt be surprised if prices remain relatively stable for a week, with low volume and limited movement โ typical for June-July (the crypto market tends to be sluggish at the beginning of summer). However, keep an eye on the key levels: a breakout above $108K could signal โparty timeโ ๐๐, and a breakdown below $100K could panic the market into selling again (remember the potential target drop to around $90K). SantuyTrader personally leans towards being quite optimistic as historically the second half of the year (H2) tends to be bullish for crypto. Analysts say โthe worst may be behind usโ โ the worst case may have passed, so the second half could be brighter. Letโs hope this calm wave is a sign before the Bitcoin ship sails fast again. The important thing is, we remain disciplined: monitor important levels, set stop-losses, and donโt FOMO blindly. Keep DYOR and trade calmly. ๐
I hope this is useful for you, whether you are a newbie or someone who has been around in the crypto world. Remember, high volatility is both an opportunity and a risk โ so always adjust your strategy to match your profile. Clearly, Bitcoin is still on track in a long-term uptrend; it's just a matter of time whether it will moon again or take a relaxed swing first.
Stay calm, stay profitable! ๐๐ Happy trading, guys!
Reference Sources: Crypto Market Report Mid-June 2025 โ AMINA Bank; CoinDesk Markets (June 19-20, 2025); Binance Square Updates; TradingView/NewsBTC; and other sources mentioned above. All data and analysis above are for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions! ๐จ๐
