BTC/USDC Analysis (4H interval)
Bitcoin has been consolidating around the level of 104,600 USDC in recent hours, but the first signs of a potential rebound are appearing on the chart.
🔍 What does the technical analysis say?
📉 Trend:
BTC remains below EMA50 (105,546) and EMA200 (104,844), which technically confirms the ongoing downward pressure. However, the price is attempting to break through local resistance in the 104,600–104,900 zone, approaching EMA21 and EMA9.
🔄 RSI (14):
Currently at 45.95 – neutral, but a noticeable bullish divergence of RSI against the recent lower price lows is observed. This could be a sign of a reversal.
⚙️ MACD:
The histogram is declining, but the indicator is approaching a potential upward crossover signal. Momentum may be forming.
📈 Stoch RSI:
Value of 84.7 – overbought, but still remains above 80, suggesting ongoing buying strength.
📉 Volume:
A visible decline in volume during the correction, which may indicate supply exhaustion. MA(5) and MA(10) are starting to cross.
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📌 Scenarios:
✅ Bullish: A breakout above EMA21 (104,992) and EMA50 may open the way to test 106,800–108,000. Confirmation would come from breaking local resistance at 105,000.
❌ Bearish: A rejection of current levels and a drop below 103,800 could push BTC down to support at 102,000.
🎯 Watch RSI, MACD, and price reactions at EMA50 – a decision on the further direction may be made there.
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💬 And you – are you swing trading now or waiting for a breakout? Let me know in the comments!
