#PowellRemarks 🔍 Key Highlights from Powell (#PowellRemarks)

1. Rates Held Steady

Powell confirmed that the Fed kept its target range at 4.25–4.50% for the fourth meeting in a row. They anticipate two modest rate cuts in 2025 but emphasized that future moves are highly data-dependent, particularly on inflation and trade stimuli .

2. Inflation & Tariffs

He warned that tariffs will drive “meaningful” inflation, stating: *“Someone has to pay for the tariffs … Ultimately … the cost … will fall on the end consumer.”* . The Fed's core PCE inflation forecast was raised to 3.0–3.1%, higher than its earlier outlook .

3. Economic Growth & Labor

GDP growth is slowing to around 1.4%, with unemployment projected to reach 4.5% by year-end (currently ~4.2%). The labor market remains “solid” but with signs of cooling .

4. Caution & Uncertainty

Powell repeatedly used terms like “foggy,” “humble,” and “wait-and-see”, highlighting uncertainty from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy . He stressed relying on upcoming data before making moves and said the Fed must balance its dual mandate amid uncertain conditions .