Will the Federal Reserve Ignite ETH Tonight? Historical Repeat - 7% Flash Crash Warning!

Currently trapped in the extreme range of 2560-2480, the main force tests market sentiment through narrow fluctuations. The technical analysis shows three key signals:

1. Core of the Iron Cage Game

The upper Bollinger Band at 2559 hides a short pressure of 32,000 ETH, while the lower 2480 is supported by the MA120 moving average and key Fibonacci retracement levels. On-chain, 18,000 ETH has moved to exchanges, but the funding rate remains at a positive premium, indicating that the main force has not yet launched an attack.

2. Turning Point

The narrowing of the MACD green bars + the negative value combination of DIF suggests a risk of being lured into buying, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to 3.1%. Historical patterns indicate that a one-sided market with over 8% movement will occur within 7 days. On the macro front, we must be wary of speeches from Federal Reserve officials; if they signal a "delay in interest rate cuts," it could lead to a repeat of the June 11 single-day -7% flash crash.

3. Survival Rules

Defense Line: Withdraw if 2478 breaks

Entry Signal: Must meet the following conditions simultaneously: ① 4-hour candlestick body increase > 1.5% ② Binance buy orders surge by 200% ③ USDT premium > 0.3%

There is a large amount of trapped positions accumulating at 2530-2550, with a success rate of less than 35% for chasing up. Current strategy mantra: Defend at 2480 and wait for a turning point, follow up after breaking 2560, and avoid chasing highs during range fluctuations. Beware of the main force inducing buying through a false breakout at 2470; if a "pin bar engulfing" pattern recovers 2500 in 5 minutes, it is a typical pullback signal, with an average historical pullback of 4.8%.

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