#FOMCMeeting : Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.5% with Focus on Tariff-Related Inflation

🔹 Key Takeaways (June 18, 2025):

1. Rates unchanged: 12th consecutive meeting in the 4.25%-4.5% range.

2. Divisive Dot Plot:

- 7 members predict 0 cuts in 2025* (vs. 4 in March).

- Median maintains 2 cuts by year-end, but with "low conviction" (Powell).

3. Adjusted Economic Projections:

- ⬆️ 2025 PCE Inflation: 3.0% (vs. 2.7% in March).

- ⬇️ 2025 GDP Growth: 1.4% (vs. 1.7%).

- ⬆️ Unemployment 2025: 4.5% (vs. 4.4%).

⚡ Critical catalysts:

- Trump's tariffs: Powell warns they will impact inflation "in the coming months" (costs passed on to consumers).

- Political pressure: Trump called Powell "stupid" for not cutting rates.

- Stagflation risk: Investors warn that the Fed is prioritizing controlling inflation over employment/GDP.

💎 Crypto implications:

- Bitcoin as a hedge: Institutions accelerate accumulation (e.g., MicroStrategy) in the face of a weak dollar and possible persistent inflation.

- Correlation with gold: Up +1.4% post-meeting; BTC showed support at $104,000.

- Bullish scenario: If geopolitical/tariff tensions ease, cuts in September could fuel a rally toward $110,000.

🔍 Binance Strategy:

✅ Short-term: Use a stop-loss at $102K if BTC drops to $104K.

✅ Medium-term: Monitor US inflation data (June/July) to confirm tariff trends → Adjust DCA on dips.

✅ Key events: Upcoming FOMC meeting (July 29-30); PCE inflation report (June 27).

👉 Market reaction?

The S&P 500 rose 0.27% post-announcement; the dollar strengthens. $BTC remains in a $104K-$106K range.