#PowellRemarks Here’s a comprehensive look at the latest remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, delivered during the June 18 FOMC press conference:

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📌 Key Takeaways from Powell's Remarks

1. Economy remains solid

The U.S. labor market is at or near its maximum, with unemployment around ~4.2%, and payroll gains steady (~135,000 per month) .

GDP grew 2.5% last year and maintained that pace in private domestic demand, though exports have fluctuated due to tariffs .

2. Inflation concerns persist

Overall PCE inflation is about 2.3%; core PCE at ~2.6% — above the long-run 2% goal .

The Fed expects inflation to rise toward 3% by year-end, then moderate to ~2.4% in 2026 .

3. Cautious, data-dependent stance

Rates held steady at 4.25–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting .

Powell emphasized that the current rate supports flexibility to respond to economic changes .

4. Tariff-driven inflation uncertainty

Acknowledged tariffs are feeding into prices; the Fed is monitoring whether this effect will be short-lived or more persistent .

Timing for cuts hinges on clearer insight into tariff impacts expected over the summer .

5. Rate cuts on the horizon — maybe

The FOMC’s dot‑plot anticipates two cuts in 2025, though with growing dissent: 7 of 19 officials now see no cuts at all .

Powell framed this path as “the least unlikely,” pending clearer data and evolving risks .

6. Independence under strain

Powell reiterated the Fed’s independence despite public pressure — particularly from President Trump, who continued to demand cuts and criticized Powell sharply .

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🔍 What It All Means for Markets

Hawkish tone emerges: The Fed signaled it's prepared to keep rates elevated, delaying cuts until inflation trends are clearly abating .

Market reaction: U.S. equities moved little; however, Indian IT firms dropped ~3.5% amid broader U.S. caution . Treasury yields edged up.

Tariff lens: Christine emphasized that tariffs—along with Middle East tensions affecting energy prices—pose significant uncertainty