#PowellRemarks

Key Takeaways

1. Interest Rates Remain Steady

Powell confirmed the Fed held its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth straight pause

2.Hawkish Tilt on Inflation

Despite holding rates, Powell signaled a more cautious, slightly hawkish stance. He warned that inflation could rise, especially as new tariffs begin to hit consumers—framing the Fed’s path as a “least unlikely” navigational curve .

3. Dot‑Plot Disagreement

The updated Fed projections show a slight increase in long‑run inflation forecasts (to ~3%), misalignment among members, and an expected two rate cuts this year—though Powell cautioned the dot‑plot lacked conviction

4. Fee and "Tariff Infl ation" Emerging

Powell emphasized that import tariffs will gradually feed into inflation and that consumers are already starting to shoulder these extra costs.

5. Economic Slowdown & “Stagflation” Risks

The Fed trimmed its growth outlook to around 1.4%, anticipated a mild rise in unemployment (~4.5%), and acknowledged rising inflation risks—cautioning markets not to expect premature cuts

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