#PowellRemarks
🏛️ Fed decision & tone
Rates held steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting. Powell emphasized that policymakers are waiting for clearer data before making further moves .
He signaled a cautious yet hawkish stance, citing uncertainty from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and inflation dynamics .
🔍 Inflation outlook & tariffs
Powell warned that inflation in goods is set to rise this summer, driven by new tariffs—even as President Trump suggested consumers wouldn’t see such price increases .
He highlighted that certain sectors like PCs and electronics are likely to face sustained tariff-driven cost pressures .
📉 Data & policy planning
He stressed the vital role of high-quality economic data in making policy decisions, cautioning that budget cuts to agencies like BLS risk leaving the Fed “flying blind” .
The Fed plans to remain data-dependent, with inflation, labor stats, and global risks guiding the timing and pace of future cuts.
📅 Forward guidance
The Fed forecasts two quarter-point rate cuts this year, but timing depends on whether inflation remains elevated and wage growth shows signs of stickiness .
Still, they stress that no cuts will come before they’re confident inflation is reliably falling toward target.
🧭 Bottom line
Theme Takeaway
Stance Restrained but ready to act if inflation lingers
Risks Tariffs, weak data collection, geopolitical factors
Approach “Wait and see”, data‑driven, cautious communications
Next steps Two cuts possible, timing uncertain
📌 Why this matters
Powell is threading a delicate needle—supporting economic growth while ensuring inflation remains under control. He signals firmness on policy, but shows readiness to pivot once evidence of sustained inflation progress emerges.
Feel free to ask if you’d like more context—the economic implications of tariffs, how the Fed uses data, or insights into markets’ reactions.
