#PowellRemarks 📉 Stablecoins (USDT and USDC): Two Possible Scenarios for Adoption in Daily Life and Competition with Mastercard/Visa
Stablecoins like USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) are gaining traction as means of payment and digital value storage. Below, two objective scenarios: one of adoption (bullish) and another of limitation (bearish), considering regulatory, technological, and market factors.
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🐂 Bull Scenario (Adoption and Growth)
If there are clear regulatory advances, partnerships with financial institutions, and integration with global payment systems, stablecoins could capture a significant share of global transaction volume.
Bullish Projections:
2025–2026: Increased acceptance in e-commerce, international remittances, and B2B payments.
2027–2030: Transaction volume of USDT and USDC may exceed, on an annualized basis, networks like Mastercard and Visa, especially in emerging markets and among businesses.
Bullish Factors:
Favorable regulation, integration with fintechs, growth of use in countries with unstable local currencies, and advancements in CBDCs that validate the model.
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🐻 Bear Scenario (Limitation and Restrictive Regulation)
If governments adopt restrictive measures against private stablecoins, favoring state digital currencies (CBDCs) or imposing heavy compliance regulations, growth could be severely limited.
Bearish Projections:
2025–2026: Growth stunted by requirements for 100% bank reserves or prohibitions in key markets.
2027–2030: Use restricted to market niches (cryptoassets, DeFi), with transactions well below the volumes of major traditional payment brands.
Bearish Factors:
Regulatory pressure, KYC/AML restrictions, massive launch of CBDCs, and central banks' resistance to private currencies.
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✅ Conclusion
The future of stablecoins like USDT and USDC will depend on the evolution of global regulation, the ability to integrate with the traditional financial system, and adoption by large payment players.
