#PowellRemarks

🔹 Key Highlights from Powell’s Remarks

1. Rate Decision & Outlook

The Fed unanimously held the benchmark rate steady at 4.25–4.50%—marking its fourth consecutive pause—as it weighs incoming data and evolving risks .

The updated dot plot implies two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, but with wide variation across policymakers—some foresee no cuts .

2. Inflation & Tariff Risks

Powell flagged that tariffs are expected to contribute to higher inflation over the summer, and emphasized that “someone has to pay for the tariffs” .

The Fed’s primary task now is determining whether inflation pressure is temporary or persistent .

3. Economic Data & Labor Market

Despite growth slowing—partly due to tariff-driven inventory moves—the GDP outlook remains decent, with solid private domestic demand and steady payroll gains at ~135,000 jobs/month .

The labor market remains strong, with unemployment at about 4.2–4.5% and wage growth outpacing inflation .

4. Data Dependency & Caution

Powell underscored the Fed’s “data-dependent” approach, stating it’s “well-positioned to wait and learn more” before making further policy moves .

He voiced concern over the risk of inadequate U.S. statistical data and noted recent resource cuts at agencies like the BLS could hinder accurate inflation readings .

5. Fed Independence

Amid external pressure—especially from former President Trump—Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to independence and reliance on objective data, resisting political influence .