In macro events, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate unchanged as the market widely expected. However, the policy committee still maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing that short-term inflation expectations remain high and listing tariffs as a key upward risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a wait-and-see strategy to await further clarity on the inflation path. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical headlines continues to decline, including ongoing tensions with Iran. The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the July 9 deadline for the EU tariff suspension approaches, the U.S. has only reached one agreement with nearly 195 potential trading partners. Negotiations have stalled, and leaks have become a stale refrain, with the market's reaction to gradual tariff news becoming increasingly muted. The following time points remain crucial: July 14: The EU plans to implement retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. August 12: The 90-day tariff ceasefire between China and the U.S. ends August 31: The long-term tariff exemptions on Chinese imports expire. These points in time may trigger periodic declines in risk assets. However, QCP's baseline scenario remains optimistic: Given the intersection of both parties' interests, U.S.-China trade negotiations are more likely to lead to a stable outcome, which will support the continued rise of risk assets. Currently, the market risk reversal indicator remains in negative territory (put option premiums over call options), reflecting cautious market positioning and expectations for a short-term pullback.