1. Weekly Timeframe: Confirming the General Trend Direction, Grasping the Strategic Pattern
Examining the current market from the weekly timeframe, the technical aspects present the following characteristics:
Divergence Signal: Both MACD and RSI indicators show top divergence phenomena, and the upward momentum in candlesticks has noticeably waned, indicating an objective demand for short-term adjustments. Trend Structure Stability: The bullish pattern has not been damaged, and prices are still operating within the weekly ascending channel. Notably, the SMA60 moving average (current price level 81,000) serves as a key support level for the previous two weekly corrections; its loss or gain will directly affect the continuity of the larger trend. Strategic Positioning: The weekly timeframe primarily defines bullish and bearish patterns, offering limited guidance for mid-term and short-term operations. It is crucial to clarify two points: the market remains in a weekly upward trend, and recent fluctuations are merely a technical pause in the upward trajectory.
2. Daily and 3-Day Timeframe: Anchoring Mid-term Strategies, Capturing Tactical Opportunities
Mid-term trading strategies need to focus on the signal linkage between the daily and 3-day timeframes:
Historical Pattern Reference: The previous two deep corrections (73,000→48,000/110,000→75,000) were accompanied by the weekly MACD retracing to the 0 axis and confirming bottom divergence on the 3-day line. The current adjustment has not yet met this condition, necessitating caution against the cognitive inertia of directly analogizing to past large declines. Daily Structure Analysis: The price has not yet broken below the SMA60 moving average (102,660), with the adjustment level still confined to the daily scope, and no signals indicating an upgrade to a weekly adjustment. After oscillating consolidation, the daily level overbought pressure and top divergence risk have been fully digested, and the price and indicators have stabilized in the key support area (above 102,660), making the technical conditions for launching a new round of upward movement mature.
3. Small Timeframe: Fine Operation Guide, Grasping the Rhythm Pulse
Intraday and Short-term Trading Need to Focus on the Following Details:
Key Fibonacci Levels: The 0.236 retracement level of the rise from 75,000 to 111,000 (103,000) constitutes a dividing line between bulls and bears. The current price maintains above this level, indicating a dominance of bullish control. Geopolitical News Test: The situation in Iran and negative impacts from Powell's speech did not breach the 103,000 support, confirming two points: strong bullish support and limited effectiveness of bearish pressure; major funds may be completing a capital turnover through high-level fluctuations, necessitating caution against short-selling risks. Convergence of Fluctuations and Change Window: The price fluctuation range continues to compress (black line → green line structure), with a change point approaching. However, it should be noted that the current market exhibits a cyclical characteristic of 'large fluctuations turning into small fluctuations and then back to large fluctuations', requiring vigilance against false breakout traps after unilateral breakthroughs. Trading Strategy Optimization: Market Characteristics: The bearish trend presents a characteristic of fluctuating declines, while bullish movements tend to ascend smoothly. Operational Preference: Before systemic risks are evident in the macro environment, adhere to the 'bullish dominance, bearish assistance' strategy, with a unilateral fluctuation exceeding 10% serving as an entry signal. Execution Discipline: Maintain a wait-and-see approach when there are no clear opportunities, patiently awaiting a definitive trading window.
Conclusion
The essence of technical analysis is a probability game, requiring the establishment of a 'nested cycle' three-dimensional perspective: the weekly sets the direction, the daily plans the strategy, and the small timeframe captures the rhythm.
The current market is in a technical correction phase within a bullish trend, necessitating caution against the risks of blind bearishness and the traps of aggressive chasing up.
Traders should adhere to the core principle of 'going with the trend and controlling risk', positioning long orders near key support levels, while utilizing consolidation ranges for high selling and low buying operations until the market provides clearer trend signals.
