#PowellRemarks 📉 Stir Volatility ⚠️ — Is This a Dip or Top?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference yesterday (June 18, 2025) took a hawkish turn, shaking both markets and crypto. Here's why:
🔍 Key Takeaways from Powell's Comments
📌 Rates held steady at 4.25–4.50%, but Powell underscored looming inflation risks, linked to tariffs and oil price spikes from Mideast tensions .
🔍 While most Fed officials still forecast two rate cuts in 2025, seven of 19 now anticipate no cuts at all, reflecting growing uncertainty .
🛑 Powell emphasized data-driven caution, explicitly pointing to trade disruptions, geopolitical pressures, and sticky inflation .
📉 Market Reaction Breakdown
📊 Equities cooled slightly: Dow –0.1%, S&P flat, Nasdaq +0.1% .
📈 Treasury yields ticked up (10-year around 4.4%) .
💥 Crypto felt the sting: Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped ~2–2.5% post-commentary; BTC slid from $62.5k to ~$61k, ETH from $3.45k to ~$3.385k .
⚖️ Crypto Outlook: Bearish Short-Term, Bullish Long-Term?
Timeframe View
Short-term Bearish — Hawkish bias + higher rates = less appetite for risk assets. Watch BTC’s $60k and ETH’s $3.3k supports.
Medium-term Neutral–Cautious — If inflation cools, the Fed could pivot in Q3. Analysts say 70% odds of rate cuts by September .
Long-term Optimistic — Strong institutional flows, stablecoin regulations (like GENIUS Act), and Fed credibility could underpin crypto longer term .
🚨 What Traders Should Do Now
1. Monitor BTC/ETH key levels — Be ready for short-term bounce if $60k/$3.3k hold.
2. Use USDC pairs to mitigate volatility while waiting for the Fed pivot.
3. Track macro cues — Tariffs, oil prices, geopolitical flashpoints, and CPI data.
4. Watch for dovish pivot signals — Powell hinted cuts may come in Q3, hinging on inflation cooling .
🧠 Educational nugget: “Powell’s tone influences both equities and crypto—hedge smart.”