Why I’m buying $COIN but not $CRCL now.

Let's first look at the basic matrix (photo).

From a trading perspective, we can ignore the Circle’s extremely high PE, as trading is all about momentum and hot money. However, as I have sold my $CRCL too early and it’s mentally hard to buy it back, I’m considering buying $COIN as a fundamental play.

Per Circle’s IPO filings, Coinbase receives fully 50% of the interest income on currently ~$61B USDC reserve (after Circle’s base costs). Coinbase earns more if users hold USDC on the Coinbase platform, and slightly less for off-platform circulation – but broadly, Coinbase gets ~50% of USDC reserve income in most cases.

Coinbase earned $297 million in USDC interest revenue in just the latest quarter (Q1 2025). In Q1 2025, stablecoin interest accounted for roughly 15% of Coinbase’s total revenue (>$297M of $2.03B)

As part of restructuring their USDC partnership, Coinbase also obtained an equity stake in Circle. According to disclosures, Coinbase received ~8.4 million shares of Circle (presumably Class A) in late 2023. That stake is now worth on the order of $1.6–1.7 billion at Circle’s recent ~$200 stock price. This is a substantial hidden asset on Coinbase’s balance sheet. (For context, Coinbase’s entire market cap is ~$60B, so the Circle stake alone might equal ~3% of Coinbase’s value

I don’t expect CRCL to be that strong, but now I realize I’m wrong. I will start buying $COIN as TradFiMoney finds some crypto proxy on the stock market. $COIN will still be strong in the foreseeable future. I may also consider $HOOD as well.