🔥 $BTC in bearish-bullish tension: Technical analysis and triggers for this week (June 19-25, 2025)

📊 Current Price:

$104,729 (-0.49% vs ATH of $111,970) • Market Cap: $2.08T

⚔️ Key battle in 4H:

- Immediate resistance:** $105,413 (MA-100) → $106,200-$107,300 (EMA cluster + liquidity zone)

- Critical support: $104,535 (bearish break) → $103,300 (S2) → $102,813 (invalidates bulls)

- Bullish breakout: Sustained close >$107,800 with volume

📉 Mixed indicators:

• MACD: Bearish divergence in 4H, selling pressure

• RSI: 48.87 (neutral, no overbought)

• Parabolic SAR: Dots above candles → current bearish trend

🎯 Probable scenarios (72h):

1️⃣ Bullish (30%): Bounce from $104,400 + break $105,500 → target $107,300-$110,000 (ETF inflows + stable FED)

2️⃣ Bearish (50%): Break $104,000 → drop to $102,813 → $99,500 (long liquidation + geopolitical tension)

3️⃣ Lateral (20%): Range $103,600-$105,400 (volatility compressed in BB)

⚡ Catalysts:

• FED: Stable rates (4.25%-4.5%), but inflation lurks due to oil

• Institutional: BBVA recommends 3-7% crypto exposure to clients

• Geopolitics: Iran-Israel tension → "flight to safety" risk

💡 Short-term strategy:

• Aggressive traders: Short on loss of $104,400 (SL $105,000, TP $103,300)

• Swing traders: Long on bounce from $102,800 with volume (SL $101,900, TP $106,000)

• Risk management: OCO orders in the $103,000-$106,000 zone

🔍 Watch today:

- Reaction to $104,500 (technical + psychological S1)

- ETF flows: Record inflows ($46B) support demand

- FED speech on inflation (14:00 ET)

Let me tell you a little bit here what I have found out