In today's complex geopolitical chessboard, confrontations go beyond military tactics; they extend into the economic realm with brutal impact. A fascinating and often underestimated analysis arises when comparing the cost of launching an attack by Iran versus the astronomical bill that Israel must assume to protect itself. The conclusion is surprising: defending against aggression of this magnitude turns out to be exponentially more costly than carrying it out, a lesson that resonates strongly with recent events.
Iran's Low-Cost Strategy vs. Israel's High-Price Defense
The Iranian strategy of massive attacks is based on a combination of low cost and saturation. At the forefront of their arsenal are the small but effective "kamikaze" Shahed-136 drones, with a unit value ranging from 20,000 to 50,000 dollars. These swarms of drones act as a first wave, designed to overwhelm defenses. They are complemented by more traditional ballistic missiles, with costs ranging from 100,000 to a million dollars per unit, offering considerable impact capability. The crown jewel, the hypersonic Fattah-1 missile, a technological marvel capable of reaching impressive speeds and maneuvering to evade defenses, is estimated at around 200,000 dollars per unit, although due to its sophistication, some sources suggest that its real cost could exceed a million.
The manufacturing of this Iranian arsenal falls primarily on the state-controlled defense industry, under the supervision of the Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Organizations such as the Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) and Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industries (HESA) are the pillars of their production. Although there are "knowledge-based companies" that contribute components and technology, they operate under the strict state umbrella, far from the independence associated with publicly traded private corporations.
The Israeli Shield: Sophistication at a High Price
In the face of this threat, Israel deploys a layered missile defense system, one of the most advanced in the world, designed to intercept threats at different altitudes. The famous Iron Dome, with its Tamir missiles, is the first line against rockets and mortar shells, with an approximate cost of 40,000 to 50,000 dollars per interceptor. Above this, David's Sling, using Stunner missiles, handles medium-range missiles, with a price that hovers around 700,000 dollars per unit. Finally, the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems are designed to intercept long-range and high-altitude ballistic missiles, with an estimated cost of between 2 and 3 million dollars per interceptor.
The economic paradox becomes evident when we consider a large-scale attack. If Iran launches hundreds of drones and dozens of ballistic missiles, including some Fattah-1, the total cost for the attacker could range, according to our estimates, between 40 and 70 million dollars. However, the bill for Israel in activating its sophisticated defense systems against each of these threats, which often require the launch of multiple interceptors per target to ensure destruction, could rise drastically. We are talking about a defense that can involve an expenditure of between 80 and 150 million dollars for each large-scale attack. This asymmetry highlights a fundamental strategic challenge: defense is, by design, a much more expensive business than attack.
Who Manufactures the Weapons: A Look at the Defense Industries
The companies that manufacture Israel's weapons are a reflection of its industrial power in defense. State-owned companies such as Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) are the masterminds behind the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow systems, respectively. These are state-owned entities, although they operate with the efficiency of large corporations. Complementing this structure, Elbit Systems, a prominent private company that is publicly traded, plays a crucial role in providing a wide range of advanced systems, from avionics and drones to electronic warfare solutions, integrating seamlessly into the national defense ecosystem.
Are we witnessing a new era where economic power dictates the pace of conflicts?
