The market has recently been impacted by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and the rebound that started in mid-April seems to be nearing its end. Investors need to be wary of a state where, even with favorable news, prices may no longer rise; the market's reaction to conflict news is also weakening, showing a certain degree of numbness. This risk of stagnation at high levels is accumulating.
The logic driving the market has fundamentally changed. Bitcoin's trend is no longer dominated by the four-year 'halving' cycle as in the past; it resembles being driven by macroeconomic dynamics, forming waves of 'trend segments', rather than a traditional years-long bull or bear market.
Despite the short-term volatility triggered by the situation in the Middle East, on-chain data and investor behavior reveal the resilience of Bitcoin's long-term trend. The recent rebound has attracted short-term bottom-fishing funds to take profits, but early holders have remained relatively calm and have not participated in this round of volatility. More importantly, the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges continues to decline, clearly indicating that investors prefer long-term holding over short-term arbitrage profits.
From the perspective of market structure, there exists a dense support of over 2 million Bitcoins in the $93,000 to $98,000 range. Despite the price increase, these key positions have not triggered panic selling, indicating that the overall market sentiment remains rational and has not reached the psychological price point where most investors would want to take large profits. Overall market volatility also remains at a relatively mild level.
Looking ahead to this week, the main theme affecting the market is expected to shift from geopolitical risks to macro policies. The latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday has become the focus for traders. The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2025. If the final dot plot maintains this expectation or is more optimistic, it could boost sentiment for risk assets such as Bitcoin and US stocks; conversely, if the dot plot shows a smaller-than-expected rate cut, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a market pullback.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has defended the critical support level of $102,700 during the geopolitical pressure tests over the weekend and Monday, gaining support near the EMA200 moving average on the 4-hour chart. The price is now approaching the short-term target near $108,000. The market has temporarily ruled out the possibility of a deep pullback below $100,000. The trend is now converging into two main paths: attempting to break through previous highs or forming a triangular oscillation structure within the current range. Before the results of the Federal Reserve meeting are released, if the price cannot effectively break through key resistance, it is more likely to enter a range-bound consolidation between $106,000 and $108,000.
At the same time, the altcoin market continues to perform weakly, with the overall market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's exchange rate index having fallen for six consecutive weeks, currently approaching an important long-term trend support line. This is not due to a lack of new concepts or stories, but rather a lack of 'fuel' provided by a low-interest-rate environment. Amplifying early project stories into market-wide hot topics requires macro-level liquidity easing. In the current environment, many potentially promising projects are just waiting for the next liquidity easing cycle to arrive. Once a low-interest environment re-emerges, the market could quickly enter a virtuous cycle of 'financing expansion, profit effect, story upgrades,' potentially signaling the start of the altcoin season.
Overall, while the impact of geopolitical conflicts has not completely dissipated, its shock to the market shows an intermittent and diminishing trend. The medium-term direction of the market will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and whether new, persistent positive narratives emerge. Although on-chain data indicates long-term confidence and structural health, the weakening of new inflows also limits the momentum for significant short-term upward movements. Investors should remain patient, focus on core assets, manage positions well to cope with potential fluctuations, and wait for the market to choose a clear direction.