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Bitcoin traders are looking for a key data point in the Federal Reserve meeting, not the interest rate decision.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with the announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern Time.
On June 18, 2025, at 6:41 AM
What you need to know
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The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with the announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern Time.
Cryptocurrency traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate dot plot, which may affect market dynamics depending on expected interest rate cuts.
The hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve could pressure Bitcoin prices and impact the U.S. financial situation by increasing debt service costs.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 12 officials, is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates at 6:00 PM UTC on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later.
The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that the central bank is likely to maintain its stance and keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25% - 4.50% despite repeated calls from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs.
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Thus, the interest rate decision is an inevitable outcome, and cryptocurrency traders are likely to focus on the interest rate dot plot - a graphical representation that records each Federal Reserve official's expectations for interest rates.
With interest rates expected to remain steady, traders are focusing on the dot plot: a drop of less than the expected two would strengthen the likelihood of a longer rise; any cautious surprise would weaken the dollar and may ease the freeze in the cryptocurrency market. Until then, patience is key, according to cryptocurrency trading and market-making firm XBTO.
The hawkish dot plot, which indicates a decrease in interest rate cuts, could put pressure on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general. Bitcoin's rise has already stalled above $100,000, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East exacerbate uncertainties regarding inflation caused by the trade war.
During the year 2025, expectations for interest rate cuts have sharply declined, from an initial 100 basis points to only 50 basis points currently. This adjustment is attributed to labor market resilience and inflation remaining, albeit moderately, above the 2% target. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could reduce expected cuts to only 25 basis points, according to Matteo Greco, senior analyst at Finikia, in an email.
While a hawkish Federal Reserve may cause downward volatility in Bitcoin, it is likely to exacerbate the U.S. financial situation by adding to the country's debt service costs, thereby enhancing the long-term appeal of assets like gold and Bitcoin.
